Research On The Influence Factors And Forecast Analysis Of Total Coal Consumption In Jilin Province

Energy is not only an important resource for social and economic development and progress,but also an important part of the country's basic security.For many years,coal has occupied a dominant position in China's energy consumption and is closely linked to the national economic development.Jilin Province's energy consumption is also dominated by coal consumption.At the end of the 12 th Five-Year Plan period,coal consumption still exceeded 70%.With the continuous acceleration of economic development and industrialization,the problem of coal resources in Jilin Province has become increasingly apparent,energy supply has been continuously restricted,and ecological and environmental problems have become more serious.In view of this,this paper analyzes the primary energy production,energy consumption,coal consumption status of Jilin Province and the coal consumption status of major coal-consuming industries under various industrial structures,and uses principal component analysis and multiple regression based on the status analysis.The analysis method discusses the main factors affecting the total coal consumption in Jilin Province,and on the basis of the analysis results of the influencing factors,constructs a GM(1,N)prediction model of total coal consumption in Jilin Province,and obtains Jilin Province 2018 through scenario analysis predicted results of total coal consumption in 2030.In particular:(1)By 2017,coal production in Jilin province's total primary energy production will only meet about 30 percent of the province's coal consumption.The crude oil production was mainly affected by the optimization and adjustment of the refining industry structure and the promotion of the oil product quality upgrading project.After 2013,the proportion of crude oil production gradually increased.The share of natural gas and other energy production increased year by year in the late period of the 12 th five-year plan,on the one hand because Jilin province actively sought to optimize its energy structure,on the other hand because the provincial government gradually increased its support for clean energy.The structure of energy consumption is basically the same as that of energy production,and the trend of change is different from that of primary energy production.Under the control of environmentalprotection requirements and policies,coal consumption has declined year by year after the 12 th five-year plan period,but it still accounts for a major part of the total energy consumption of Jilin province.The proportion of natural gas and other energy consumption increases year by year,and the demand exceeds the supply in the energy market.For natural gas energy,it is because of the impact of the seasonal contradiction between the supply and demand of natural gas,Jilin province lacks large natural gas storage facilities and cannot provide a stable supply of natural gas.For other energy resources,Jilin province is limited by various conditions,such as technology,so the superior energy has not been transformed and utilized effectively.The coal consumption structure of Jilin province mainly consists of processing conversion and terminal consumption.Although the proportion of coal consumed for processing is decreasing year by year,it is still very high.Industrial end consumption,thermal power generation and heat supply are the main USES of the total coal consumption in Jilin province.In addition,the consumption demand for thermal power generation and heating is on the rise,accounting for a high proportion of 63%in 2017,and the consumption of coal in the industrial terminal is decreasing year by year.In addition,this paper also analyzes the industrial structure of Jilin province and the main coal industries in the industrial structure.Among them,the coal consumption of the tertiary industry is increasing year by year,and the coal consumption of the secondary industry is still the main sector of coal consumption,although the coal consumption of the secondary industry has been decreasing in recent years.In the secondary industry,the electricity and heat supply industry accounts for the highest proportion of coal consumption.The comprehensive analysis of urban development and other factors shows that it is mainly affected by the acceleration of urbanization and the rapid growth of heating in new towns.In recent years,the ferrous metal smelting has benefited from Jilin province's efforts to eliminate backward production capacity,strengthen the efficient recovery and utilization of secondary energy and waste heat resources,support steel enterprises in building energy management centers,and lower world steel market prices,whichhave affected the proportion of total coal consumption decreasing year by year.The proportion of total coal consumption in the non-metallic mineral products industry declined on the whole and fluctuated slightly in 2016,mainly due to the impact of economic development and increased market demand.The consumption of coal in the manufacture of chemical raw materials and chemical products declined slowly year by year.This is because the Jilin provincial government continuously encourages the energy conservation technology transformation of the crude oil industry and actively promotes the clean production process of chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing industry,as well as strengthens the comprehensive utilization of waste heat in high-temperature and strong exothermal process units.Among the tertiary industries,the largest coal consumers are transportation,storage and postal services.Especially from 2013 to 2015,the increase was remarkable under the influence of Jilin provincial government's active introduction policy.After 2016,it declined slightly,which is related to the regional characteristics and overall economic development of Jilin province.The coal consumption of living consumption fluctuates obviously.The coal consumption of living consumption in Jilin province is mainly in the aspect of winter heating,which is closely related to the temperature in the winter of the same year.When the temperature is high,the coal consumption will decrease.On the contrary,more coal is used.(2)Based on the current situation of coal consumption in Jilin Province analyzed in the previous chapter,this article selects 7 indicators for principal component analysis and multiple regression analysis,so as to obtain the main factors affecting coal consumption in Jilin Province.The results of the principal component analysis show that the GDP of the secondary industry and the total population have a greater impact on the total coal consumption in Jilin Province.The results of multiple regression analysis show that: the GDP of the secondary industry,total population and coal production have a greater impact on the total coal consumption in Jilin Province.Based on the above two results,we find that the GDP of the secondary industry,total population and coal production all have an impact on the total coal consumption in Jilin Province.Among them,the GDP of the secondary industry is the most importantfactor affecting coal consumption in Jilin Province.Although the proportion of the secondary industry continues to decrease due to the optimization of the industrial structure,the coal consumption of the industry is still relatively high,mainly because Jilin Province is an old industrial base,and the metallurgical and chemical industries with energy consumption as the main body are in short supply.The time still cannot be completely transformed,and the situation of industrial production with coal consumption as the mainstay will continue for some time.Secondly,the total population is the second most important factor affecting the total coal consumption.On the one hand,it is because the gradual increase in the area of ??households will increase the energy consumption of households;the expansion of urban public and supporting facilities is also increasing electricity consumption.On the other hand,the winter heating area in urban residential areas has also been expanding.Therefore,the growth of the total population will promote the growth of coal consumption,and vice versa.The third main factor that affects the total coal consumption is coal production,because the amount of coal production directly affects the coal consumption costs of the coal-consuming industry.(3)After analyzing the influencing factors of coal consumption in Jilin Province,this paper establishes the GM(1,N)gray prediction model,sets the baseline scenario mode,low-speed development scenario mode,high-speed development scenario mode for Jilin Province 2018-2030 Forecast total coal consumption.In order to find scenarios that meet the coal control policy of Jilin Province and the requirements of various aspects of economic development.Under the baseline model scenario,the total coal consumption of Jilin Province is basically consistent with the planned coal consumption control target of Jilin Province.When the high-speed development scenario mode appears,the economic development speed is too fast,and the industrial structure optimization speed is lower than the economic development speed,which cannot meet the current needs of Jilin Province;when the low-speed development scenario mode,the economic development speed slows down,and the industrial structure optimization does not change significantly The government's weak control over coal production makes the total coal consumption meet the planned value,but itruns counter to the development goals of Jilin Province and does not conform to the development trend of Jilin Province.