Temporal And Spatial Distribution And Peak Prediction Of Carbon Emissions In Jiangxi Province

The fifth assessment of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC)pointed out that since the 1950 s,observed climate change has never been seen in decades or even thousands of years.The increasing energy consumption has caused a large amount of greenhouse gas emissions.Global warming has seriously threatened the sustainable development of mankind.Both the international community and China have taken measures to deal with global climate change and mitigate the greenhouse effect.As the largest developing country in the world,China proposes to achieve carbon emissions peaks by 2030 and make commitments and specific measures to reduce emissions.Jiangxi Province is currently in a period of rapid industrialization and urbanization.In the process of economic development,it consumes a lot of energy.At the same time,there are problems such as irrational energy structure,high energy intensity and low energy utilization efficiency.Jiangxi Province needs to change its development mode.Develop a low carbon economy.Based on the theory of sustainable development,low-carbon economy theory,externality theory and energy substitution theory,this paper analyzes the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of carbon emissions in Jiangxi Province,in order to lay a foundation for better prediction of carbon emissions,and according to the spatial difference of carbon emissions,Propose carbon emission reduction policy recommendations according to local conditions.Combined with the development planning and current situation of the state and Jiangxi Province,the scenario analysis method is used to set 8 scenarios and adopt the STIRPAT model,to predict the carbon emission trend of Jiangxi Province in 2016-2050,and analyze the results of each scenario,to select the optimal scenario,and combine the situation of economic development in Jiangxi Province with the situation of carbon emissions to explore the possibility of reaching the peak of Jiangxi Province before 2030.The research indicates :(1)In general,the total carbon emissions in Jiangxi Province is continuously rising.In terms of time,the carbon emission and per capita carbon emission growth rate are characterized by a first increase and then decrease.The rate of decline in carbon emission intensity continues to increase over the past five years.In terms of space,the carbon emissions in Jiangxi Province are obviouslyregional.In general,the carbon emissions in the western and northern regions of Jiangxi Province are higher than those in other regions.(2)The peak carbon emission time in Jiangxi Province is between 2029-2035.The analysis found that the slower the development rate of population,per capital GDP and urbanization rate,the earlier the peak carbon emission time,the lower the peak value,the smaller the total carbon emission;The faster the carbon emission intensity,the proportion of non-fossil energy and the secondary industry account,the earlier the carbon emission peak time and the lower the peak value,the smaller the total carbon emission,and the technical level is particularly important for carbon emissions.(3)The medium-high mode is the best mode for the development of Jiangxi Province.While maintaining economic development while vigorously improving its technological level,Jiangxi Province may achieve carbon emission peaks by 2030.