| The rapid industrial aggregation and industrial ecology demands the scientific decision-making which implementing the macroscopical guidance and the decision-making mechanism in our country can't ensure the optimize collocation, especially during the high speed economy increasing period in China. However,the decision-making in integrated development zone management is quite lack of information management decision support,and ecological industrial management involves system design, system analysis, system management to continuity and comparability.Therefore, system evolution can not effectively simulate control,that environmental strategy choice can not be demonstrated.Management mechanism itself unable to determine optimizing state, which need judge system efficiency with model simulation. Promoting a circular economy has been identified as China's basic national policy, according to the recently enacted 11th five-year plan for China's economic and social development. Circular Economy Promotion Law of the P. R. China had been put into effect on 1 January of 2009. Circular economy planning need Decision support technology. This dissertation tried to explore an integrated approach for industrial system on the basis of System Dynamics,according to the principles of "System simulation analysis "and" system strategy design".By way of Shannon-Weaver index for the biuologic diversity, the diversity has a significant impact on such aspects of its own industrial ecosystem as perfecting its structure,optimizing its functions, increasing its overall competitiveness and stabilizing its evolution process.This paper first has evaluated the diversity of the industrial ecosystem structure in Nantong Economic and Technological Development Zone (NETDZ) and anologized the adaptability of the diversity as a principle in nature to the industrial ecosystem. The result shows that,the index of the component diversity will decrease gradually with the expansion of the scale year after year, that is to say, the whole ecosystem lacks of stability, the index of industrial structural diversity from structuring element to its network (Hu-Hc-Hn) has declined little by little,which shows that the functional Diversity is imcomplete.Eco-industrial system models was established for NEDTZ using system dynamics(SD) approach, SD is characterized by a cause-feedback mechanism and interactions among economic variables. SD method consists of dynamic simulation models embracing information feedbacks that govern interactions in a target system. In the study, four subsystems, industrial output, materials wastage, indicator integration, pollution discharge, join with the SD model configuration for the integrated system environments regulation and control. The model runs in Vensim-DSS software and simulates the running of development zone system in 2000's, which has a strong application as model output right with Reported data of Model.During system simulation period, the growth of system performances will been slow. Eco-efficiency factor will increase with years, while the growth of pollution discharge index should been greatest. Decision makers can fine tune variables and select preferable scenarios of efficient system through simulations.Based on model for eco-industrial system constructed, the relationships between economic growth and environmental pressure from 2005 to 2020 was analyzed. The dynamic changes of environmental pressures represented by materials wastage and pollutant emission were examined by using Structural decomposition analysis(SDA) model.Dynamic simulation and changes analysis revealed that, (1) The enviromental pressures Produced two driving factors in NEDTZ has been there according to integrated Eco-industrial management concept,however,increasing environmental pressure started fast droping at the late stage. (2) The enviromental pressure by substances was mainly caused by labor consumption in the process of economic growth, followed by water consumption before 2015 and by energy consumption after 2015. Emission of waste solid provided greatest contrbution to it, followed by the emission of COD.(3) Land factor has positive effect with slower decline, while economic growth factor has obvious impact, and showed a rapid increasing trend at the beginning stage of the period. Technological progress did mitigate, but showed a weakening trend at the late. Three factors on enviromental pressure differed with the kinds of them. And also, on the basis of model simulation, and previous system analysis of eco-industry foundation, scenario analysis of eco-industrial system was applicated in NEDTZ. This paper choosed three adjustment parameters for simulation, including industrial added value ratio, investment proportion of science and technology, investment proportion of environment protection. Through Vensim-DSS software, economy output, pollution emission and matter consumption simulation results in the five scenarios were compared. The results of this study showed that contamination and resource Influences on economy would diminish while total investment output ratio steadily increase,and efficient system of scenario two was the highest by Grey Relational Analysis (GRA), Which means the system reaches its optimal state. Decision makers can fine tune variables and select preferable scenarios of efficient system through simulations. Based on material integration management, ecology industrial management strategy put forward for NEDTZ from different aspects. |
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