Study On Demand Forecast And Supply Structure Of Lead In China From 2020 To 2035

Lead,one kind of the most early-used mental,almost companies the whole process of social industrialization and has been widely applied in multiple fields including storage battery,alloy,chemical industry,etc.With lately environmental protection concepts being rooted deeply among people,development of lead reserves have become one of the most hotspots among scholars.Over the past few decades,global consumption of lead has increased instantly,to be specific eleven times more from 1950 to 2017,due to the impetus of lead-acid battery.However,it is the futural development of lead reserves that counts to a nation,given that various policies have come to act including ban on the sale of oil-fueled automotive,replacement of new-type batteries such as lead and nickel,etc.Under the mentioned-above circumstances,study on the demand and supplement,global or domestic,of futural lead reserves might have influence on the healthy and sustainable development of lead industry in China.This thesis firstly analyses the reserve distribution,production,consumption,and trade of lead reserves,global and domestic both included.Based on that,demands of global and domestic lead reserves were predicted,using sigmoid regularity of lead reserves consumption and u-shaped regularity of consumption intensity,given the thought that lead reserves might be replaced in mass or not in the future.The prediction shows that global demand of lead reserves will reach to 12.64 million tons,12.93 million tons,1308 million tons while domestic one will reach to 5.74 million tons,5.02 million tons,4.82 million tons till 2025,2030,2035 respectively if lead reserves were not replaced in mass;global demand of lead reserves will reach to 11.15 million tons,10.44 million tons,9.55 million tons while domestic one will reach to 4.4 million tons,3.86 million tons,3.3 million tons till 2025,2030,2035 respectively if lead reserves were replaced in mass.This thesis then predicts the output of domestic lead reserves in the future,mineral storage and renewable storage as follows.(1)mineral storage should be controlled by about 50% of the current one progressively in 2035;(2)renewable lead industry should be strengthened and increase to 60% of refined lead outputs.And this thesis proposed the solution of overseas resources usage,namely the sorting of various countries' investment environment and determination of three types of layout planning zones using analytic hierarchy process(i.e.,AHP)method,compared to futural lead demand.Ultimately,some advice for scientific development of domestic lead reserves were proposed as follows.(1)in terms of mine production of lead: the call of de-capacity and replacement of poisonous materials should be positively responded,and switching to development of other mineral types should be encouraged for some enterprises;(2)in terms of renewable lead: renewable lead usage should be improved,previous enterprises need to be integrated,and legislations remain to be further fulfilled;(3)in terms of overseas resources usage: acknowledge of various countries needs to be deepened,and pointed policies should be proposed to make sure that sustainable access of overseas resources would be maintained.