Phosphate Rock Resource Supply Risk Assessment And Demand Forecasting In China

About 70%-80%of China's phosphate rock resources are used to produce phosphate fertilizer,which is an indispensable fertilizer in China's agriculture.Therefore,the supply safety of phosphate rock resources is seriously related to the development of China's agriculture.Although phosphate rock is the dominant mineral in China,China's phosphate resource endowment is poor.there are more low-grade and medium-grade ores.The average content of₂₅ is only 17%.The demand for domestic resources is large and the supply is seriously insufficient.By 2017,the guarantee degree of China's phosphate rock resources is only 26 years.In the future,China's phosphate rock resources supply will face a severe crisis.And the position of phosphate rock as a dominant mineral in China is in danger.Therefore,it is of great significance to evaluate the supply risk of phosphate resources in China and predict its future demand.Based on the analysis of the current situation of China's phosphate rock resources and the theory of supply risk,this paper evaluates the supply risk of China's phosphate rock resources by using Radar Method?BGR-VW?,selecting seven indicators:resource security,external dependence,global share of resources,current market equilibrium,price fluctuation,net yield of agricultural phosphate fertilizer application and production environment performance index.It is known that the supply risks of China's phosphate resources are mainly resource risks and ecological environment risks,and the supply risk situation is still very serious.This article is based on the theory of supply and demand,according to actual data from 2008 to 2017,and using System Dynamics Method?SD?to forecast the demand for phosphate rock resources in China in 2018-2025.Based on the analysis of the supply risks of China's phosphate rock resources,five policy schemes are put forward.The first option is to maintain the current production scale and consumption status,schemes2 to 4 gradually reduce the agricultural consumption and improve the degree of foreign dependence,and option 5 is to increase the reserve resources on the basis of the fourth one.Under the constraint of supply and demand balance,the resource guarantee degree of different schemes is obtained,among which the resource guarantee degree of scheme5 is the largest,which is the optimal scheme.Under the optimal scheme,the future supply and consumption of China's phosphate rock are on the rise,but the growth rate of consumption is significantly higher than that of supply,resulting in the difference between supply and consumption becoming smaller gradually.By 2025,the supply and demand balance will be basically achieved.Among them,China's phosphate rock consumption is the largest in the agricultural sector,the consumption of which is rising first and then declining;the consumption of phosphate ore in other industries is rising,especially in the food manufacturing industry,chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing industry,with an average annual growth rate of more than 8%.Through analysis,we can know that in order to ensure the sustainable development of phosphate rock resources in the future,we should strengthen the utilization of low-grade phosphate rock,make rational use of overseas resources,launch futures trading products,reduce the use of phosphate fertilizer,strictly control the output of phosphate rock resources,increase the input of phosphate rock resources exploration,and ensure the safety of resource supply.