| Global climate change and its impact on social production activities have aroused widespread international attention.In recent years,China,as one of important member of World Meteorological Organization,adopt a series of measures in terms of energy-saving and emission-reduction,the improvement of energy utilization efficiency etc.to reduce the emissions of greenhouse gas.In November 2009,the Chinese Government made the first commitment to the international community to incorporate carbon emission intensity as a binding indicator into the long-term planning of national economic and social development.By 2020,China's carbon emission intensity will be 40-45% lower than that in 2005.Northeastern area is one of typical traditional industrial bases in China,and its Carbon emissions is increased by 164.6% from 1998 to 2013.The development of low-carbon economy and the decrease of carbon emissions are related to social and economic sustainable development of northeast China.Therefore,based on night light data,this paper empirically analysis and explores the carbon emission characteristics and its driven mechanisms in three provinces of northeast china at the city scale to offer new ideas to carbon emission research and provide reference for formulating carbon emission reduction policies in northeast china.Taking the night lighting data of 36 prefecture-level cities in Northeast China as the research object,this paper firstly constructs the relationship model between night lighting data and carbon emissions,and then combines ESDA,GWR model and spatial econometric model to analyze the characteristics,driven mechanism and the influence degree of each factor of carbon emissions in the city scale of northeast China from 1993 to 2013.The main work and conclusions of this paper are as follows:(1)The night light data in the city scale of three northeastern provinces from 1998 to 2013 are corrected because the collected data in the difference of sensors from the different years might lead to the unstable of pixel.The corrected results show that pixels from different sensors has good continuity and consistency,and its fitting accuracy is over 0.9.(2)The regression model of carbon emission data and the corrected night light data in three northeastern provinces from 1998 to 2013 is constructed to study the changing feature of carbon emissions at the city level in three northeastern provinces.From 1998 to 2013,the total carbon emissions in the study area was fluctuated tendency during growth period.In generally,the order of carbon emissions from large to small is: Liaoning province,Heilongjiang province,Jilin province.As for Liaoning province,the carbon emissions of Shenyang increased from 28.71 million tons in 2008 to 37.29 million tons in 2013,and its growth rate has reached 29.9%.Moreover,the carbon emissions of Dalian increased from 20.98 million tons in 2008 to 29.12 million tons in 2013,and its growth rate has reached 38.7%.Compared with the carbon emissions of other cities in Liao ning province,the analytical data showed that the largest carbon emissions city is Shenyang,while the fastest growth of carbon emissions city is Dalian.Although the growth rate of carbon emissions in Harbin was decreasing since 2000,as far as the total carbon emissions is concerned,it is still the largest carbon emission city in Hei long jiang province.Compared with the carbon emissions of other cities in Jilin province,the data showed that the largest carbon emissions city is Changchun.(3)The result of the exploratory analysis of spatial data show that global carbon emissions of Moran's I exponents is above zero,and the correlation between carbon emissions of different cities is positive.The relative imbalance of developmental pattern in the aspect of carbon emissions in three northeastern provinces.Compared with the carbon emission of other areas,Harbin in Hei long jiang province is in the high-high value area of carbon emission from 1998 to 2013,and Shenyang and Dalian has become the high-high value area of carbon emission since 2003 because the long-term development of tourism in Dalian promotes the development of regional economy which might result in the increasing of carbon emissions year by year.(4)Given that the driven factors of carbon emissions in three northeastern provinces do not exist independent variable multiple linear problems,the method termed as GWR is adopted to analysis the effects of degree of main factors on carbon emission,and the main conclusions are listed as follow:(1)The total population is positively correlated with carbon emissions,and its impacts on carbon emissions shows that the high-value areas continue to increase,while the low-value areas gradually narrow.(2)The high-value areas of foreign investment factors are concentrated in the eastern part of Hei long jiang province and have the tendency to extend to Jilin province,while the low-value areas are gradually reduced and concentrated in Liao ning province and parts of Jilin province.The regression coefficient of foreign investment in GWR is from negative to positive,which shows that foreign investment has a driving effect on carbon emissions,and the impact on carbon emissions is also growing.(3)The regression coefficient of the per capita GDP factor from 1998 to 2013 is gradually decreasing,which indicates that it has little effect on carbon emissions.However,the per capita GDP factor from a spatial perspective has a greater impact on the carbon emission in Hei long jiang province.(4)The regression coefficient of urbanization rate is decreasing,which indicates that its impacts on carbon emissions is quite different in the study area.(5)The regression coefficients of aging have a wide range of variations,and the low-value areas gradually show a stable tendency,while the high-value areas gradually concentrate in the semi-circular Bo hai Rim.The impact of aging on carbon emissions in the point of coefficient is gradually weakening.(6)The high value coefficient region of industrial structure regression increased Dan dong city of Liao ning province and Tong hua city of Jilin province,while the low value coefficient region increased Yan bian city of Jilin province.(5)Spatial relevance analysis of carbon emissions at city scale by using spatial error model,spatial lag model and spatial Dubin model,and the result shows that the coefficients of industrial structure,urbanization rate,total population and foreign investment are significantly positive,which indicates that their impact on the increasing of carbon emission is positive.In general,foreign investment and the number of urban population will have a significant spillover effect on carbon emissions in surrounding areas.Technological spillovers between regions can be achieved through regional links and exchanges. |
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