Study On The Impact Of Total Emissions Impact On Economic Growth

As China's economy transitions to the middle income level,the environmental pollution problems accumulated during the extensive development process in the early stage have become increasingly prominent.The early administrative imperative environmental regulation methods have not achieved remarkable results.The Chinese authorities have begun to try market-based regulation methods.The emission trading system is the focus of China's current construction.At the same time,due to the pressure of political achievements,local governments frequently demanded that enterprises stop production and stop work,which in essence caused an uncertainty impact on the total amount of pollutants that was established as the premise of the system.This paper focuses on this economic phenomenon,in order to study its impact on China's economic growth through modeled theoretical analysis and numerical impact simulation,and provides a reference for the formulation of China's relevant environmental regulation policies and the realization of green sustainable growth.By combing the existing literature,it is found that as China's emphasis on environmental issues continues to deepen,research results in the field of environment and economy are becoming more abundant.However,the existing research has the following shortcomings: First,there are many research results on the EKC hypothesis,but there is no consensus conclusion.Although the research on the formation mechanism of EKC curve has found that the inflection point of the curve originates from the government's governance behavior of environmental pollution,most of the research only stays in the general concept of “government governance” and lacks a deep environmental regulation system.Research and analysis of policy transmission mechanisms.Second,although the theoretical study based on the endogenous growth model compensates for the mechanism characterization that is lacking in the EKC hypothesis,it also faces the problem of Lucas' criticism.Therefore,this paper uses the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model(DSGE)to study the mechanism of action between total emissions and economic growth.Established a three-sector DSGE model that includes the household sector,polluting manufacturers,and environmental protection agencies,innovatively introducing environmental quality as a substitute for products into utility functions,and introducing pollution as a production factor into production functions.Finally,the impact of the impact of total pollutant discharge on economic growth and environmental quality is studied by numerical simulation.The specific research work includes the following aspects:First,we collected data on various types of pollution emission indicators and data on GDP and industrial added value in China,and observed the trend of changes.The trend of pollutant emissions per unit of industrial output is then described,and the relationship between pollutant emissions and economic growth is analyzed.Secondly,combined with the characteristics of China's economic growth data,a DSGE model consisting of three microscopic subjects including representative households,environmental protection departments and representative polluting manufacturers is constructed.The parameter values in the model are calibrated and the steady state values of the system are solved for the subsequent impact.The simulation is based on preparation.Finally,the software is used to simulate the dynamic reflection of the entire economic system when the total amount of pollutants is negatively impacted.The study found that when the total amount of pollutants defined by the environmental protection department was instantaneously reduced by 10%,output,government expenditure and environmental quality all showed different degrees of negative deviation in the current period,and the unit price and consumption of pollutant discharges showed instantaneous positive deviation.The output showed a negative shift of 6% at the beginning of the period,although it has subsequently recovered,but it is still below the steady state level after the 40 th period.The “environmental deterioration” effect caused by the reduction of government pollution control costs is significantly higher than the “environmental improvement” effect caused by the decrease in output,which makes the environmental quality negatively shift.The second phase of environmental quality loss was brought about by the household sector to increase consumption while maintaining utility.The reduced savings led to a 10% positive shift in interest rates,although it has subsequently fallen back,but is always above the steady-state level,which has an inhibitory effect on economic growth.In the end,the sudden drop in total emissions has led to a negative effect on the overall economic system.The original intention of the policy was to reduce pollutant emissions,but the simulation results showed that the policy eventually caused a significant drop in environmental quality.The innovation of this paper is to integrate environmental factors and institutional factors into the analysis framework of economic growth,and reveal the mechanism of the total pollution discharge on economic growth fluctuations.And environmental factors are introduced in the three sectors of the DSGE model,making environmental factors throughout the entire economic system,more realistic.