Study On Ecological Carrying Capacity And Early Warning Of Ningdong Energy And Chemical Industry Base

Mastering and understanding the ecological carrying capacity and early warning can better serve regional sustainable development and ecological civilization construction.The research takes Ningxia Ningdong Energy and Chemical Industry Base(referred to as "Ningdong Base")as the research area,starting from 2000 to 2015 and taking every five-year as a period,as well as extracting data sources from Landsat TM7,8 remote sensing image,GF-1 remote sensing image,DEM(25m X 25m),meteorological data and statistical data.With the support of software platforms such as ArcGIS,ENVI and eCognition,3S technology,SCS-CN distributed hydrological model,RUSLE model,InVEST model and vegetation cover conversion method,the ecological carrying capacity evaluation system of Ningdong base is constructed with four indicators of soil erosion,land desertification,water conservation function and natural habitat quality,therefore,the ecological carrying capacity health level is divided based on four indicators.The land cover of the research area in 2025 is simulated by CA-Markov.The ecological capacity prediction of the Ningdong base will be completed in 2025 and the early warning of the results will be provided.The main findings of the study are as follows::(1)The integrated application of 3S technology plays an important role in the early warning research of ecological carrying capacity.Using RS to manage remote sensing images in order to obtain information such as land use and vegetation coverage;using GPS to provide accurate positioning in the process of sampling points and land use field verification in the study area;implementing GIS to realize the construction and calculation of rusle,scs-cn and other models,and use its powerful spatial analysis function to analyze soil erosion,land desertification and water conservation functions in the study area.The 3S technology can directly reflect the research content and spatial distribution characteristics in the regional ecological carrying capacity and early warning research,which can provide rich data sources for research,powerful spatial analysis and precise positioning of field practice,as as to show an intuitive and scientific research result..(2)The selection and evaluation methods of evaluation indicators are suitable for the early warning evaluation of the ecological carrying capacity of Ningdong base.Combined with the actual situation of Ningdong base production project development and construction,ecological environment planning and construction,soil and water conservation work and etc,using model construction,theoretical derivation,algorithm realizing method,the variation rules and characteristics of the evaluation factors are discussed separately during three construction periods by the five-year scale.By Using RUSLE model,SCS-CN distributed hydrological model,InVEST model and vegetation cover conversion model,the regional ecological environment characteristics and change laws are evaluated from four indicators:soil erosion,water conservation function,natural habitat quality and land desertification.The CA-Markov simulation is used to predict the ecological carrying capacity of the Ningdong base in the next 10 years.The evaluation results are in line with the actual situation of the ecological carrying capacity of the Ningdong base.(3)To obtain information on the health degree of ecological carrying capacity,research on the use of GIS software platform superimpose soil erosion,land desertification,natural habitat quality and water conservation function of Ningdong base.The research results show that:the health of the ecological carrying capacity in Ningdong base maintains a stable and good trend from 2000 to 2015.The proportion of the health level is mainly characterized by the middle level,the significant high level,and the lowest proportion of low level area.In terms of spatial distribution,there is a concentrated trend in the high-level distribution,which mainly distributed along the Duck Dang Reservoir in Ningdong Town,the Bailutan National Wetland Reserve,the central Hui'anbao Town and the Luoshan National Forest Reserve in the southwest.With the design and implementation of ecological restoration initiatives,low-level and medium-level are gradually transformed into high-level.(4)Using CA-Markov model predict the land cover change of Ningdong base in 2025.Through the use of the spatial-temporal variation law and characteristics from 2000 to 2010,we can simulate the land cover information in 2015 and verify the simulation accuracy with actual comparison.The Kappa coefficient reaches 0.97,which is a highly precise simulation that indicates the method is suitable for regional land cover simulation prediction.(5)Not only do we obtain the land cover information of Ningdong Base in 2025 through simulation,but acquire the information of the healthy area degree and the spatial distribution of the ecological capacity in 2025.The results show that the ecological carrying capacity of the Ningdong base is mainly in the middle level in 2025,accounting for 76.04%,followed by high level accounting for 23.96%and low level at least 0.01%.From 2015 to 2025,the level area of the ecological environment in the study area decrease significantly,which decrease by 171.10 km2,with a decrease of 4.91%;the change of the low level is small;the area of the high level increased significantly,with an increase of 4.92%.As the health area is gradually changed from low,medium to high level,the ecological carrying capacity of the Ningdong base is in an no warning stage.