A Simulation Study On The Influencing Factors Of Carbon Emissions In Yunnan And Its Trading Market

With the rapid development of the world economy and the worsening environment,global warming has become an environmental concern for all mankind.Countries around the world began to pay attention to environmental protection and pollution control.As the world's second-largest economy,China is a huge challenge for China to meet its carbon reduction targets while ensuring steady economic growth and to meet its corresponding emission reduction obligations.On the one hand,through the government to guide enterprises to carbon emission reduction technology development,enterprises to carry out green production methods.On the other hand,through the establishment of a national unified carbon trading market,the establishment of market mechanisms to control enterprise carbon emission reduction,the current eight carbon trading pilot operation to promote carbon emission reduction has achieved some results.This paper studies the decomposition and trading system of Yunnan carbon emission factors by combing the research results of carbon emissions at home and abroad,combining the theory of carbon emission trading and the system dynamics model.Firstly,on the basis of the calculation of YUNNAN carbon dioxide emissions,the LMDI factor decomposition method is used to decompose and analyze the carbon emission factors,and secondly,the main variables of Yunnan carbon emission trading market system are selected according to the influence factors,and the validity of the model is tested.Finally,Yunnan enterprises participate in the carbon emissions trading market simulation,through adjusting the variable parameters,the simulation results of carbon trading policy changes are compared and analyzed,and the production and operation activities of enterprises are analyzed by setting five scenarios,such as carbon quota trading,carbon quota trading change rate,free quota ratio,carbon trading price,carbon trading subsidy ratio and so on.The conclusions of this paper are as follows:(1)The factors affecting Yunnan's carbon emissions are mainly divided into energy structure,energy intensity,industrial structure,economic scale and population size,of which the economic scale is the main factor to promote the increase of carbon emissions,and energy intensity plays a role in curbing the increase of carbon emissions;(2)The implementation of carbon trading policy will have a negative impact on Yunnan's economic development,but can effectively promote the carbon emission reduction of enterprises;(3)Different carbon trading policies have different effects on the economy and carbon emission reduction,the higher the rate of change of carbon quota and the higher the price of carbon trading,the greater the restriction on the production and operation activities of enterprises,but can effectively promote carbon emission reduction;(4)The production and operation activities of enterprises and the development of carbon emission reduction technology will be affected by the carbon market,and the impact of different scenarios on enterpriseparticipation in carbon trading will change with policy changes.Based on the conclusion of this paper,the paper puts forward some suggestions on the establishment of Yunnan carbon trading market and enterprise carbon emission reduction,in order to find the corresponding carbon emission trading policy suitable for the development of Yunnan low-carbon economy,and to prepare for the future development of Yunnan carbon trading mechanism and enterprises to join the carbon emission trading market.