Research On Coal Transportation Of Menghua Railway And Its Impact On Regional Economic Development

From the perspective of the distribution of coal resources,China's coal resources are more in the north and less in the south,rich in the West and poor in the east.Therefore,the spatial pattern of coal production is also based on this distribution.From the perspective of consumption,the spatial structure of economic development determines the spatial distribution characteristics of coal consumption.Domestic coal consumption generally shows a pattern of “southeast bulge and northwest depression”.The significant difference in coal supply and demand areas determines the importance of coal logistics,and the spatially different distribution of this coal logistics input and output area determines the basic pattern of China's coal logistics.The basic pattern are “Transporting the coal from the west to the east” and “Transfering the coal from the north to the south”.In October 2018,the General Office of the State Council issued the “Three-Year Action Plan for Promoting the Adjustment of Transport Structure(2018-2020)”.It is planned that by 2020,the volume of bulk cargo transported by railway waterways will be significantly improved.Multimodal transport has increased significantly.However,at present,China still faces the problem of increasing the capacity of the “Transporting the coal from the west to the east” and the lack of capacity of the “Transfering the coal from the north to the south”.As a coal transportation channel that provides the main transportation power for China's North Coal South Transportation Project,Menghua Railway is very important to China's coal railway transportation capacity.Therefore,it is very necessary to study the transportation needs of Menghua Railway and the distribution of transportation capacity and the impact on the regional economy as well.This paper first introduces the situation of Menghua Railway,constructs a macro environment analysis model,and combines relevant theories to calculate the transmission capacity of Menghua Railway.Then it expounds the current situation of coal demand in Hubei,Hunan and Jiangxi and the status of coal production in Shanxi,Inner Mongolia and Shaanxi.Using forecasting method to obtain the coal consumption demand in Hubei,Hunan and Jiangxi and the raw coal in Shanxi,Inner Mongolia and Shaanxi in the research year.According to the pattern of coal transfer and the capacity of the channel,an optimization model is established to determine the coal distribution.Finally,the economic impact of the Menghua Railway on the transfer to the province is analyzed,the direct economic impact of the construction of the Menghua Railway on Hubei,Jiangxi and Hunan is mainly to improve the freight capacity,the indirect economic impact is to promote the development of related industries,increase the number of regional social employment and reduce environmental pollution and energy consumption.Quantitative analysis of the economic benefits brought by direct economic impact and statistics of economic characteristics and economic data of Hubei,Hunan and Jiangxi provinces,based on the “with or without contrast” analysis method,the regression analysis method to establish the fitting of specific influencing factors and regional GDP.The model and the prediction model are used to predict the annual trend-type traffic volume of the three provinces in Hubei,Hunan and Jiangxi provinces before the opening of the Menghua Railway,combined with the increased traffic volume after the opening of the Menghua Railway,and finally using the comparison method to measure the economy of the Menghua Railway to the three provinces of Hubei,Hunan and Jiangxi.However,the impact of indirect impact on the economy cannot be measured in terms of money in a short period of time.It takes Menghua Railway to calculate its economic benefits after a certain period of time and period of operation,so it is a simple qualitative analysis.