Research And Application On Risk Evaluation Method Of Tobacco Line Reconstruction Project Duration Production

With China's accession to WTO,competition in the domestic tobacco industry is becoming increasingly fierce,many cigarette manufacturing factories have the option to upgrade tobacco production line to improve product competitiveness.According to condition,some factories choose reconstruction tobacco lines duration production,that means while reconstructing parts of tobacco,keep others running.In the existing reconstruction project risk evaluation mechanism,a handful of experts judge risk by the subjective experience.But limited personal knowledge,experience and capacity,and the impact of personal feelings,it is difficult comprehensive consider the circumstances related to the environment,and it will lead easily biased or mistakes.Based on the summary the characteristics of tobacco line reconstruction project duration production,the paper proposed to use AHP-fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method in risk assessment.First,build a multi-level risk index system,and then quantify and sort the risk through the Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP),and finally obtain a quantitative risk assessment results through fuzzy comprehensive evaluation by experts.The results shows that the AHP-fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method having advantages of both methods,and it is useful to evaluate project risks.