Study On Simulation Model Of Investment Decision-Making For Shale Gas Development

In recent years,China's dependence on foreign oil continues to rise,the country's energy security is seriously threatened.Shale gas,as the most ideal energy,its development is of great significance for the maintenance of China's strategic energy security.The development of shale gas in oil and gas prices,technological progress,environmental protection and tax subsidies have serious dependence on random factors coupled with oil and gas prices,shale gas production of single well and the existence of investment decisions based on key information can also be changed in different degrees.Therefore,how to use the scientific and effective methods to accurately grasp the influence of random factors on investment timing and avoid the blindness of investment decision is very important for oil companies.At present,it is difficult to accurately describe the high degree of uncertainty in investment decisions only by relying on a simple mathematical model.Therefore,this study based on the analysis of the investment decision-making process of shale gas development,analysis of the complexity of shale gas development investment decision,refining the key indexes that influence the investment decision,Simulink build a simulation model of investment decision by the development of shale gas,the amount of investment and the complete distribution simulation of random factors,determining the feasible investment point of each block and the best investment point,and determine the maximum return on investment,it has important significance for promoting the commercialization of shale gas development.The results show that the model can effectively guide the enterprises to make investment decisions and improve the scientific and rational decision-making.