Study On Decision-Making Of Safety Investment Based On System Dynamics Approach

The modern enterprises are complicated systems, continual dynamic changes of enterprise management challenge traditional safety investment decision-making, which is lack of systematic thinking, and hard to meet the substantial requirements in quantity and structure of safety investment.System Dynamics, a subject based on feedback control theory,is a method for analyzing and understanding the dynamic behaviors of complex systems in virtue of computer simulation technology.Considering with the properties of safety investment of enterprise, System Dynamics is introduced in this dissertation, on which was based setting up system dynamics model to analyze source, target and affection of safety investment. The basic principle of safety investment decision-making is clarified with the further analysis. Besides, the System Dynamics model of safety investment, involving risk-prevention investment, risk-mitigation and risk-transition, is built by System Dynamics modeling technology and Vensim software. With the practice simulation of the model, different safety resources-distribution scenarios are analyzed.The simulation results shows that the model is able to illustrate the impact of different decision schemes on accident risk index, including accident frequency, average accident loss, quantity of accident and overall loss of accident, which is of certain reference value in safety investment decision-making.