Research On Coalbed Methane Risk Control Model Based On Multi-source Information Fusion Technology

With the rapid development of coalbed methane industry,China's coalbed methane development presents its own distinct industrial characteristics.There are many factors affecting the industry,such as complicated geological conditions,long life cycle,large capital requirements and high risk,which are the practical problems the coalbed methane industry must face.Therefore,it is necessary to study the development risk control of CBM industry in China,explore the risk control methods of CBM development projects and avoid unnecessary economic losses.Firstly,based on the analysis of the characteristics of CBM development risk in the study area,the paper collects relevant data and data of the mining area.The paper chooses the influencing factors with larger weight as the risk index of CBM development to establish the model.Secondly,based on the advantages and disadvantages of common risk assessment,the paper compares the results of AHP and expert evaluation.The data with consistent evaluation results are retained as risk values,and the risk values with inconsistent evaluation results are set as null values for parameter learning of Bayesian networks.This paper establishes a risk assessment model for CBM development based on Bayesian network,and verifies the feasibility and validity of the evaluation results through Bayesian network reasoning.Finally,taking the development of CBM in Zhengzhuang block of Qinshui Basin as an example,the risk of CBM development is predicted based on Bayesian network.Experiments show that the network can infer the probability of risk under the condition that the parameters of each influencing factor are known,and the probability of risk can also be inferred when the data of each factor in the area to be evaluated is incomplete.At the same time,according to the different stages of resource exploration,the corresponding countermeasures of risk control are put forward,which has a certain practical significance for the development of coalbed methane.