Research On Safety Performance Low Consequence Indicators In Approaching Phase

From the statistical analysis of flight accidents and incidents in civil aviation of China in 2008-2017,the 10,000-hour rate of major and above flight accidents in transport aviation has remained at zero accident rate except for 2010,and the flight incident rate is relatively small,but the overall situation is in an upward trend.In recent years,safety management of civil aviation of China has undergone a tremendous transformation but there is still room for improvement in the safety management level and effect.Safety performance management is an important part of safety management.The selection and determination of safety performance indicators directly determine the effect of safety performance management.Therefore,in the process of moving forward to the safety management level and the increasingly precise requirements of safety performance management,determining safety performance indicators based on low consequence events is an inevitable problem in the future safety performance management process.In this study,the information of 1467 low consequence events in the approach phase was taken as a sample to analyze the causes of low consequence events based on the status parameters analyzed by a instrument approach procedure.The flight status indicators with event characteristics were selected according to the causes,and then the flight status indicators of the approach phase were obtained by summarizing all the flight status indicators of low consequence events.Then,according to the SMART principle,the low consequence indicators of safety performance with the characteristics of the approach phase were designed based on the flight status indicators.The information entropy-based risk analysis model was used to analyze the risk that the low consequence indicators may lead to serious consequences,and the risk reaching a certain level were regarded as the core risks,and the core risk warning was carried out.Through designing the target values the alarm values and the alarm rules of the first-level indicators of safety performance to monitor the safety performance.The risk matrix method was used to design the safety performance evaluation formula based on low consequence indicators in the approach phase,and then the safety risk value was calculated according to the frequency of the indicators,and the risk level was evaluated to reflect the safety performance level.The research shows that the low consequence events information analysis can obtain the flight status indicators with event characteristics,the low consequence indicators of safety performance with the characteristics of the approach phase can be designed based on the flight status indicators,the information analysis model based on information entropy can predict the trend of serious consequence events,and reduce the occurrence of serious consequences by taking preventive measures in time.This idea of developing low consequence indicators is applicable not only to the approach phase,but also to any phase of flight,providing a means for the development of low consequence indicators of safety performance.