Research On Sustainable Development Of Zhenjiang Based On National Hectare Ecological Footprint Model

In recent years,with the Chinese economy developing rapidly,it has also brought about a series of environmental problems.The contradiction between population,resources and environment has become increasingly prominent,which has restricted China's sustainable development in certain degree.Therefore,it is especially necessary to how to quantitatively study and evaluate regional sustainable development.Under this great background,a series of methods for sustainable development evaluation came into being.Among many methods,the ecological footprint model has been widely accepted by experts and scholars because of its intuitiveness,easy access to data,operability and reproducibility of accounting methods.As an important part of China's Yangtze River Delta economic belt,while taking advantage of many development opportunities to enhance the regional economy,it has also caused a certain degree of damage to the local ecological environment,for example,white pollution,water pollution,and biodiversity loss have become increasingly prominent.Therefore,research on sustainable development in the region is an urgent task.Although Li Fanglin and Zhang Haibin have related to the ecological footprint of Zhenjiang in 2000-2007,there have been few reports on the recent ecological footprint of Zhenjiang in 2007-2016.Therefore,this paper considers Zhenjiang as the research object and uses the National Hectare ecological footprint model to calculate the ecological footprint,available ecological carrying capacity and ecological deficit/surplus to evaluate the sustainable development of Zhenjiang in the past ten years.In addition,in order to evaluate the sustainable development of Zhenjiang in multi-angle,the comprehensive evaluation system of sustainable development is constructed by means of four indicators:ecological footprint index,ecological intension index,development capacity,ten thousand yuan GDP ecological footprint.Then,the gray forecasting model is used to predict the sustainable development of Zhenjiang in 2017-2026.Finally,in view of the current development of Zhenjiang,several policy recommendations are proposed.Based on the above,the conclusions are summarized as follows:(1)The results of the dynamic analysis show that the ecological footprint of Zhenjiang in 2007-2016 is generally on the rise.Meanwhile,available ecological carrying capacity first rises and then declines,which eventually leads to the transition from the ecological surplus to the ecological deficit,from sustainable development to unsustainable.(2)It is concluded from the comprehensive evaluation system of sustainable development:development capacity of Zhenjiang continued to increase in the2007-2016,which is mainly achieved through the growth of the ecological footprint(at the expense of consuming ecological resources).The massive consumption of ecological resources has brought huge pressure on the ecosystem,which eventually leads to the development of Zhenjiang from an ecological surplus to an ecological deficit,that is,from sustainable development to unsustainable development.During this period of time,the ecological security situation in Zhenjiang was safer-slightly insecure-less safer,and the ecological security situation is deteriorating.It also verifies the enormous pressure exerted by the ecological footprint on the environment.In order to reduce the ecological footprint,it can be achieved by improving resource utilization efficiency and developing high-tech industries.It is worth noting that during the same period,the ecological footprint of Wanjiang GDP in Zhenjiang showed a downward trend,indicating that its utilization efficiency of resources is increasing.Although this improvement has reduced the ecological footprint to a certain extent,it is not enough to change the overall upward trend of the ecology footprint.Therefore,Zhenjiang should further improve the efficiency of resource utilization.(3)In virtue of the gray forecasting model to predict the ecological footprint and available ecological carrying capacity of Zhenjiang from 2017 to 2026.The forecast results show that the ecological footprint presents a continuous growth trend,which increases from 0.763850622 hm~2/cap in 2017 to 1.129264233 hm~2/cap in 2026;Available ecological carrying capacity is in the overall downward trend,with a decrease from 0.630134644 hm~2/cap in 2017 to 0.566554764 hm~2/cap in 2026;The ecological deficit increases from 0.133715978 hm~2/cap in 2017 to 0.562709469hm~2/cap in 2026.Obviously,the demand and consumption of resources in the production and life of the residents exceed the range that the ecological productive land can withstand during the period,making the contradiction between supply and demand more prominent and the sustainable development situation continues to deteriorate.Finally,in view of the current development of Zhenjiang,the following strategies and suggestions are proposed:Zhenjiang should optimize,upgrade and transform the industrial structure,vigorously develop low-carbon environmental protection industry;Vigorously promote ecological restoration and construction;Vigorously develop tourism industry;Protect land resources and improve ecological carrying capacity;Improve population quality and strengthen Zhenjiang residents'awareness of environmental protection.