The Refined Oil Consumption Trends And Emission Reduction Potential Analysis In Transportation Of China

The process of economic development and urbanization in China has promoted the rapid growth of transportation energy demand and CO₂ emissions.CO₂ emission reduction in the transportation sector is an important way to achieve a national sustainable development strategy.This study takes the driving factors of China's transportation refined oil consumption and the mechanism of CO₂ emission as the research object,and takes the analysis of the effects of energy-saving and emission-reduction policies for transportation as the research goal,aiming to provide reference for the formulation of China's traffic emission reduction policies.Firstly,through literature summarization and statistical analysis,the factors influencing the consumption of various refined oils were identified,and the cointegration relationship between gasoline,diesel and kerosene consumption and its influencing factors was determined through stepwise regression and cointegration testing.The error correction model is established.The cointegration relationship and the error correction model show that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between gasoline consumption in China's transportation sector and the urbanization rate,energy consumption intensity,and private car ownership,and is most affected by the urbanization rate;diesel consumption and energy consumption structure,There is a long-term equilibrium relationship between energy consumption intensity and the transportation industry output value,which is most affected by the energy consumption structure.There is a long-term equilibrium relationship between kerosene consumption and energy consumption intensity and aviation turnover respectively.And by the impact of energy consumption intensity.Secondly,on the basis of the cointegration of refined oil consumption and the error correction model,a system dynamics model of China's refined oil consumption and carbon emissions was constructed.Based on the development scale and technological progress of new energy vehicles,the traffic reduction in China was constructed.The system dynamics model of policy simulation,and the two systems were synthesized to build a model of China's energy-saving emission reduction simulation system,and verified the validity of the system.Finally,this model was used to analyze the energy conservation and emission reduction potentials of different new energy vehicles in China in terms of their development scale and different levels of technological progress.The results of the study show that in the absence of energy-saving and emission-reduction policy interventions,the total consumption of refined oil and carbon emissions in the transportation sector will maintain a growth trend from 2016 to 2025,and will stabilize after 2026;consider the combination of new energy vehicle development and technological progress.After the scenario,the relative baseline scenario will reduce by 5.64%⁸.14%by 2020,8.79%²2.2%by 2025,and 13%⁴0.7%by 2030.