Study On Cause Factors In Emergency Process Of Fire Accident For Oil Depot Zone

In recent years,domestic oil and gas storage and transportation has developed rapidly.Large national reserve oil depots or commercial reserve oil depots have been built successively,which has actively promoted the development of the national economy.But fire accidents in oil depot zone have the characteristics of great harm,wide range and serious consequence.Once the accident happens,timely emergency disposal must be carried out to eliminate or minimize the expansion and damage of the accident as much as possible.However,many live accident cases taught us:after the initial accident,emergency accidents such as expanding casualties,worsening situation and environmental pollution often occur due to the improper emergency.It fully shows that there are some potential hazards in the process of emergency disposal and reconstruction,which said the cause factors of accident in the field of system security.The interaction and coupling of these factors will lead to emergency accidents.But according to the current literatures,the existing researches on cause factors of fire accidents in oil depot zone are mainly used to analyze the possible risk sources in the initial accident phase but often lack risk source analysis in emergency process that may lead to emergency accidents.From the perspective of emergency process safety,this paper studies cause factors of emergency process in fire accident of oil depot zone.According to statistics of 102 typical fire explosion accidents in oil depot zone from 1971-2018,21 cause factors are summarized,and qualitatively and quantitatively analysis are conducted on these factors.We adopt fault tree analysis method and interpretative structural model to qualitatively analyze these factors.The emergency accident fault tree,the 88 minimum cut sets and 9 minimum path sets are obtained through the fault tree analysis method;and the 8 multi-layer hierarchical interpretative structure model is established,the direct factors,indirect factors and root factors leading to emergency accidents are obtained.We adopt fault tree model,bayesian network model and analytic hierarchy process method to quantitatively analyze cause factors.The probability importance degree of basic events,the conditional probabilities of the intermediate events and the probability of the top event are obtained.In order to more accurately assess the quantitative influencing degree of each cause factor,the conditional probabilities in BN are modified by using expert scoring method,and modified bayesian networks model is established.We use GeNIe software to calculate the posterior probability and sensitivity of each basic event and do influence analysis,most possible ways leading to the emergency accident were identified.The importance of every cause factors can be decided by calculating the weight with analytic hierarchy process method,so that it can be found that management factors and material factors are the main cause factors leading to emergency accidents.Based on the above research,taking two actual accident cases as examples,their cause factors in emergency process are analyzed by using established fault tree analysis model,interpretative structure model and modified bayesian networks model and the correctness of the model built is verified.According to the statistics of typical fire cases in the oil depot area and 21 cause factors,the case website of emergency fire accident in oil depot zone is constructed to facilitate the management of cases,the display of cases and research results,so that the research results are more objective and standardized,and the subsequent research is more convenient.Research results provide a scientific basis for revealing the mechanism of emergency accidents in oil depot zone fire,and it is of great scientific and guiding significance to ensure the safe operation management of the entire life cycle of the oil depot zone.