Study On Consequences Prediction In Emergency Response Processes Of Fire Accident For Oil Depot Zone

In recent years,with the advancement of my country’s oil reserve strategy,my country has entered a period of rapid growth in the construction of large national oil storage depots and commercial oil storage depots,the specific manifestation is the intensification of the oil depot zone and the large-scale storage facilities.This makes the fire accident in the oil depot zone have the characteristics of strong diffusion and wide coverage.Based on the characteristics of oil volatile,flammable and explosive,no matter what measures are taken,it is difficult to prevent the occurrence of fire accidents in the oil depot zone.Historical practice has proved that after the fire accidents in oil depot zone,the number of casualties increased due to improper emergency response,emergency accidents such as the deterioration of the accident situation and the increase of environmental pollution have occurred from time to time.Therefore,in order to better control the spread of fires,it is of great significance to make reasonable predictions on the development trend of fire accidents in the oil depot zone and make accurate judgments on the evolution path of the corresponding scenarios.In order to solve the problem that the evolution path of the occurred fire accident for oil-gas storage and transportation is not clear,so that the targeted emergency measures can not be taken,which further aggravates the accident and finally leads to serious accident consequences.This research takes the safety in emergency processes as the starting point,from the perspective of scenario deduction,to study the consequences of fire accidents for oil-gas storage and transportation.First,through the statistical analysis of actual accident cases,19 frequently occurring basic scenarios in emergency processes are summarized.Then,the scenario evolution paths of fire accidents for oil-gas storage and transportation are given by analyzing the evolution law of the accident development.Fuzzy numbers are introduced to express experts’ qualitative judgment on accident scenarios.The empirical probabilities of scenario nodes are obtained by defuzzification calculation,and the state probability of each scenario node is calculated by using the dynamic Bayesian network joint probability formula.Under the comprehensive consideration about the probability statistics of actual accident cases,the critical scenario nodes on the evolution path and their final scenario probabilities are jointly determined to realize the optimization of the scenario evolution path.It takes“direct economic property loss”,“storage tank loss”,“environmental impact degree”,and“death toll” as indexes to measure the severity of the accident consequences in the article.By constructing the correlation between the optimized scenario evolution path and the accident consequences,a dynamic Bayesian network prediction model of accident consequences for the fire scenarios deduction in the oil depot zone is established.The occurrence probability of accident consequences is calculated by the defuzzification method and dynamic Bayesian network.The accuracy of the consequence prediction model is verified by the July 16Dalian’s Xingang Harbor oil pipeline explosion accident.Then,in order to further analyze the scenario consequences of the fire accident in the oil depot zone,through the gray correlation analysis of the accident scenario and severity indexes of accident consequences,the accident scenarios with greater degree of correlation are selected,the multiple linear regression model of accident consequences for the fire scenarios deduction in the oil depot zone is established,and the prediction results of the model are verified through examples.Finally,dynamic Bayesian networks and multiple linear regression are used to analyze the evolution path and the consequences of scenarios of fire accident in the oil depot zone.The prediction models of accident consequences for the fire accident scenarios deduction in the oil depot zone based on these two methods are established,two prediction models are compared through typical fire accident cases in the oil depot zone to verify the validity and accuracy of the models.The results show that the dynamic Bayesian network prediction model of accident consequences has smaller errors than the multiple linear regression prediction model,and the prediction results are closer to the actual data.The research results reveal the evolution mechanism of the accident during the fire emergency process in the oil depot zone,and provide a scientific basis for the decision makers to make the most reasonable emergency decision plan in the emergency response process.