The Analysis Of Collision Risk In Caofeidian Ships' Routeing System And Its Nearby Waters

The outer waters of Caofeidian port is important channel for ships entering and leaving Tangshan port,Caofeidian port,Tianjin port,Huanghua port and the port group of western Bohai,which is one of the busiest channel in Bohai.In December 2009,the Ministry of Transportation approved and formally implemented "Ships' Routeing System in Caofeidian waters" and "Ship Reporting System in Caofeidian waters",which made the navigational environment greatly improved.However,due to various factors,the number of ships sailing across this area has increased greatly in recent years,and the number of traffic accidents has also increased.So,research on the analysis of collision risk in Caofeidian ships'routeing system and its nearby waters has theoretical and practical significance.This thesis summarizes the existing collision risk analysis theories and methods,classifies them according to the perspective of macro and micro and illustrates their own advantages and disadvantages.This thesis introduces the navigational environment of Caofeidian ships' routeing system and its nearby waters in detail.This thesis has collected maritime traffic accident data in nearly seven years since the implementation of Caofeidian ships' routeing system and has collected the lasted traffic flow data and analyzed them in detail.This thesis divides study areas into six risk areas according to the constitution of Caofeidian ships' routeing system and the characteristics of the actual traffic flow there.Through observing and investigating the maritime traffic in every risk area,based on IWRAP model,using MATLAB software,this thesis sets up a ship-collision-probability-calculation system of Caofeidian ships' routeing system and its nearby waters to calculate ship collision probability values in six risk areas respectively.Based on BP neural network,using MATLAB software,this thesis sets up a ship-collision-consequence-assessment model of Caofeidian ships' routeing system and its nearby waters.This thesis selects six characteristic indexes and one assessment result and sets up a nine-inputs-five-outputs neural network.This thesis divides 49 collected maritime accident data into training group and validation group,in order to train and validate the model.Through input corresponding characteristic indexes,this thesis obtains the consequence probability of collision accidents at different grades of different ship types.Finally,this thesis obtains collision risk in Caofeidian ships' routeing system and its nearby waters by multiplying the collision probability and the consequence probability and puts forward safety suggestions and countermeasures pertinently.Through analyzing the results,it can be concluded that area 1 and area 6 has high collision risk values,the probability of occurring small accident is more than 50%for all kinds of vessels and the probability of occurring major accident and particular major accident is very small.The collision risk in Caofeidian ships' routeing system and its nearby waters is generally acceptable.In safety consideration,it is suggested that an independent virtual precautionary area should be added to the eastern end of the first traffic separation scheme and the western end of the second traffic separation scheme,in order to warn passing ships to avoid collision and reduce accident occurring.