Study On The Accidental Risk Assessment Methodlogy For Industrial Parks

In recent years, a lot of industrial parks have been built both home and abroad, which aim at forming a resource aggregative advantage by attracting human talents, capital and policy support, in order to promote economic fast growth and industrial technical level. Along with the construction of industrial parks, lots of accident risks occur and gather in industrial parks. Especially in chemical industrial parks, many serious or movable hazard sources are involved, and domino effect overflows, so many kinds of complex accident risks cluster. With the highly aggregative hazard materials and energy, the parks are faced with great possibility of major accidents, and the consequence severity of accidents keeps progressing. The huge risks are threatening the human life, health and property in these industrial parks, which bring a new challenge for precaution and control, as well as a task for study.The study on accident risks in industrial park is always a hot topic in recent years. Establishing a scientific risk assessment system is an important means for industrial parks to promote the level of inherent safety and prevent major safety accidents, which could ensure the scientific safety planning, routine safety supervision and management and efficient risk control.The studies about regional accident risks in our country are lagging behind those in developed countries, most of which are focusing on assessment about specific or single hazard source, rather than macro-analyses on risk controls. Thus, this study took a perspective which considers the industrial park as a functional region with systematic features and internal relevance, and effected by multiple external elements including economy, society, politics and environment. Based on the rules of accident risk analysis and accident causing theory, a comprehensive assessment methodology of accident risks in industrial parks—MEVIP model was put forward, with quantitative and qualitative methods. This model includes accident probability, consequence intensity, surroundings vulnerability, emergency capability and safety management.This study started with a survey on theories, quantitative or qualitative methods, and practice of risk assessment for industrial parks, introducing the significance and innovation of the MEVIP model. The premise of the MEVIP model, accident cause theory was introduced, for understanding the complexity of accident risk, interaction of technical-social factors and hierarchy of causes. Then the accident risk of industrial parks were studied from technical control and social interference, and an accident cause analysis model was established including 5 levels of factors: hazard source management, working staff, working scene, organization, government and other interference administrations, as well as social factors. At same time, the transmission relationship among these levels of factors and systematic dynamic control measures were demonstrated. Based on the above, the main constitutions of MEVIP model were studied including probability, intensity, vulnerability emergency capability and management, and the objective, scope, keynote, routine and method for each assessment factor were analyzed, so a rather systematic risk assessment system for industrial parks was provided. Finally, a risk assessment on Tianjin Economic Development Area (TEDA) was introduced so as to provide a practical test for MEVIP model.Probability indicates the possibility of accident. The complex function of industrial parks requires a pre-analysis of accident risk before the establishment and operation of the system. By pre-analysis, the failing possibility for the system or links could be exposed, and relative measures for weak links could be implemented to ensure the system reliability. Bow-tie structure chart analysis was used to study the liability of safety system during technical process. For Domino accident risk control is the most important content of over-all risk control in industrial parks, the probability of Domino accidents was discussed with probability function method.Accidents consequence intensity involves the physicochemical and toxic properties and storage status of hazardous materials, the ability of risk resistance and emergency response. Bio-matrix method was used to identify potential major hazard in industrial parks, and four-matrix method was used to identify the typical accident scenes. Based on the typical risk of leakage and diffusion of dangerous goods, the severity index of accidents consequences was applied to quantize the accident consequences in industrial parks, and reflect the level of potential risk in industrial parks.Vulnerability is the internal features of the system which emerges and changes when the system is disturbed. As a drive factor of vulnerability, the external disturbance and interaction among systems enlarge or shrink the vulnerability. Vulnerability is used in risk assessment to screen the human, site and buildings which may be easily damaged by serious accidents. With method of quantification index, the vulnerability of objectives beyond industrial sites were displayed in geographic information system, and compared with risk severity index of major hazard sources so as to get a more visual risk assessment. Finally, the public pipelines were assessed as the most important vulnerable objectives in industrial park.The assessment of emergency capability and safety management were important indicators of risk precaution and control in MEVIP model. The safety-check tables and fuzzy set statistical method were used in accident emergency capability evaluation. Safety management of the industrial park was assessed from harmony management of affiliated enterprises, transportation management of hazard chemicals, land utilization planning and social development management.