Study On Ship's Accidental Oil Spill Risk Of Dalian Port Based On Bayesian Network

Dalian port has China's largest and most advanced 300,000-ton crude oil terminal and 300,000-ton ore terminal and it is the largest maritime passenger/vehicle roll-on and roll-off transportation port in China.In northeast China,more than 98.5 percent of foreign trade containers,100 percent of commercial vehicles and 68.5 percent of imported crude oil are transported through dalian port.Dalian port completed 451 million tons of cargo throughput in 2017,with the domestic port ranking eighth,the passenger throughput 5.8 million,and the domestic port ranking seventh.The heavy traffic at sea increases the probability of maritime accidents.Although the ship oil spill accident is a kind of secondary accident of maritime traffic accident,its consequence is more serious because of its own characteristics.Therefore,it is necessary to study the risk of oil spill from ships.On the basis of referring to a large number of relevant literatures,this paper chooses the bayesian network based on the uncertainty of probability as the main research method in the study of the risk of ship's oil spill.After comprehensive reference and analysis of relevant research status at home and abroad,the data and relevant data of oil spill accidents in dalian port and its adjacent waters are collected,and the risk identification of oil spill from the perspective of man-ship-environment-management is conducted to find out the influencing factors of oil spill from ships.Aiming at the accidental oil spill from ships,the main factors are selected as nodes,the initial network structure is constructed according to the causality relationship and optimized by optimization algorithm,and the conditional probability table is obtained by combining historical data and expert experience,so as to obtain the final vessel oil spill bayesian network structure.The model was simulated by using GeNIe software,and the risk degree of ship oil spill in the waters of dalian port could be obtained by inputting the conditional probability table.Then risk factor sensitivity analysis and posterior probability reasoning are carried out to find the sensitive factors of ship oil spill.The inference results show that the main direct cause of ship accidental oil spill in dalian port waters is collision accident,and the most important influencing factor is human factor.Put forward targeted prevention measures and Suggestions for ship oil spill,thus providing basis for the competent authority to prevent ship oil pollution management.Based on the study in this paper,it can be concluded that the bayesian network can be effectively used in the study of oil spill risk of ships,and the sensitive factors of oil spill can be found out.