Research On Consequence Evaluation Model Of LPG Cylinder Explosion Accident Based On Bayesian Network

LPG(liquefied petroleum gas)is widely used because of its low price,high calorific value,and low pollution.It is also called green clean energy.In recent years,due to leaks and improper operation,the explosion of bottled LPG has occurred frequently.Previous scholars' studies on LPG explosion accidents have mostly focused on risk analysis such as accident failure probability prediction,maximum cause chain,etc.,and most of the research objects are tank trucks,chemical storage tanks,gas pipelines,etc.,and there are very few LPG cylinder explosion accidents.A study of predictive evaluation of consequences.In order to predict and evaluate the severity of the consequences of explosion accidents,sort out emergency tasks and improve preparedness under the condition of incomplete data,a Bayesian network-based LPG cylinder explosion accident consequences evaluation model is established.The main research contents of this paper are as follows:(1)Analysis of fire and explosion accidents of LPG cylinders.Using the 2016-2019 urban gas explosion accident case statistics as the data source,analyze the location of the cylinder accident and the cause of the accident,find out the set of factors that affect the severity of the accident's consequences,use the analytic hierarchy process to found an evaluation index system and select and evaluate the consequences of the accident An indicator of severity.(2)Determine the scope of influence of explosion consequences.Use ALOHA software to input information such as cylinder model,leakage amount,and environmental parameters at the time to simulate the accident hazard area,and quantitatively analyze the accident impact area based on the analysis result to determine the safe evacuation area.(3)The selection of Bayesian network nodes and the determination of their value range.The selection of node variables should comply with the principles of validity,independence and representativeness.There are multiple states of the same node,and the degree of influence of the information characteristics expressed on the consequences is also different.Therefore,the different states of the node are defined according to relevant historical literature data,energy calculations,shock wave overpressure criteria,accident case reports and other methods.(4)Bayesian network modeling analysis.On the basis of relevant gas accident literature,combined with the collected 57 LPG cylinder accident investigation report samples,analyze the most likely dependency relationship of each accident,and then invite experts to score and optimize the uncertain dependency relationship.Using DOUWA(Uncertainty Ordered Weighted Average Operator)operator ideas and fuzzy group decision-making method,the network parameters are determined,and finally the Bayesian network LPG cylinder explosion accident consequence evaluation model is determined.(5)Model validity verification.Through the use of randomly selected samples of five LPG cylinder explosion accidents established without participating in the model,the consequence evaluation model of the explosion accident was verified,and the accidents such as direct death,direct serious injury,direct property loss,personal evacuation,and negative impact were obtained.The posterior probability values of different states of the consequences,from which the state with the largest probability value is selected,and the consequences of the accident sample to be verified are compared and analyzed to demonstrate the effectiveness of the Bayesian network LPG cylinder explosion accident consequences evaluation model.Based on the accident investigation report,the paper unites qualitative and quantitative methods,takes multiple factors into account that impact the development of the accident status,improves the adaptability of the model,and has a certain social practical value for the assessment of the severity of LPG cylinder accidents..Adopting Bayesian network to analyse the relationship between the influencing factors of accidents and probabilistic inference,it is favourable to formulate detailed accident emergency rescue plans for relevant personnel,and conduct targeted fire drills,which can provide comprehensive emergency warnings for cylinder explosion accidents.Effectively improve the comprehensive disaster prevention and mitigation capabilities.