Assessment Of The Impact Of RMB Appreciation On China's Economy-Energy-Carbon Emission System

Human activities have accelerated the process of global climate change,which in turn affects every aspect of human production and life.Now,a growing body of research shows that managing the relationship between economic development and climate change and preventing further global temperature rise is an urgent task.The main feature of climate change is global warming.The main cause of global warming is the massive emission of carbon dioxide,which is caused by the burning and utilization of fossil energy.Fundamentally speaking,the root of carbon dioxide emissions lies in the way of economic and social development and energy utilization.Due to its global and long-term climate characteristics and "global public goods" attribute,in the process of dealing with global climate change,a country can't also have no capacity in the closed state alone,this is because in the process of globalization in which countries around the world are closely linked,the foreign investment and foreign trade of a country will not only affect the economic system,also can cause the change of energy system and carbon dioxide emissions,one of the important variables is the exchange rate.The exchange rate is the bridge that connects a country's economic system,energy system and carbon dioxide emission system.China is the world's largest emitter of carbon dioxide,the largest developing country and the world's largest trading country.Therefore,studying the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on China's economy-energy-carbon emission system is not only a key component to achieve global climate governance and temperature control targets,but also meets its own development needs.Nowadays,RMB plays a more and more important role in the world monetary system.Since the outbreak of COVID-19,China's economy has started to recover slowly and steadily due to the timely and forceful epidemic prevention measures.On the contrary,the United States,due to its ineffective prevention and control measures and deepening domestic conflicts,has aggravated the social instability.Differences in the economic situation between China and the U.S.will lead to more foreign capital flowing into the country,which in turn could increase demand for the RMB,causing it to appreciate.Therefore,the theme of this paper is the assessment of the impact of RMB appreciation on China's economy-energy-carbon emission system.China's economy-energy-carbon emission system is a complex system,the computable general equilibrium model is an effective tool for comprehensive evaluation.Therefore,based on the system,this paper constructs a computable general equilibrium model to comprehensively compare and analyze the comprehensive impact of RMB appreciation of 5%,10%,15%,20%,25%,30%,35%,40%,45% and 50% on China's economy-energy-carbon emission system.The computable general equilibrium model constructed in this paper includes the following modules: production module,trade module,resident module,enterprise module,government module,carbon emission module,market clearing module and macro closure.In order to highlight the important position of energy in the production process and better study the change of coal,oil and gas consumption when the RMB appreciates,we construct a social accounting matrix which includes 11 production departments and commodities that are agriculture,light industry,heavy industry,construction,transportation,service industry,coal,oil,natural gas,thermal power,and primary power on the basis of input-output table of 2017,which has 149 production departments,in the process of production module modeling.The results show that :(1)when the RMB appreciates,GDP shows a downward trend compared to the benchmark scenario.(2)When the RMB appreciates,from the overall perspective,compared with the benchmark scenario,it will restrain exports and promote imports.When the range of RMB appreciation is 5%-25%,the effect of export inhibition is greater than that of import promotion.When the range of RMB appreciation is 30%-50%,the inhibitory effect on exports is less than the promotion effect on imports.From an industry perspective,the RMB appreciation will boost imports in every sector and curb exports in every sector.(3)When the RMB appreciates,the output of the service sector will increase and the output of other sectors will decrease compared with the benchmark scenario;at the same time,the output of the service sector will increase the amount of goods used for domestic sales,while the output of other sectors will decrease the amount of goods used for domestic sales.(4)When the RMB appreciates,compared with the benchmark scenario,the employment opportunities of residents in the service sector increase,while those in other sectors decrease;when the RMB appreciates,households will demand more goods in every sector than in the benchmark scenario.(5)On the whole,when the RMB appreciates,the input of coal,oil and natural gas decreases compared with the benchmark scenario,and the RMB appreciation restrains coal the most,followed by natural gas and oil the least.In terms of industries,the appreciation of RMB increases the coal input in the service industry and reduces the coal input in other industries;the appreciation of RMB increases the oil and gas input in service industry and construction industry and reduces the oil and gas input in other industries.(6)On the whole,when the RMB appreciates,compared with the benchmark scenario,both carbon dioxide emissions and carbon intensity decrease.In terms of industries,the appreciation of RMB has increased the carbon dioxide emission of service and construction industry and restrained the carbon dioxide emission of other industries.(7)When the RMB appreciates a little,the economic cost of reducing carbon emissions is low,with only a small loss of GDP.However,with the increasing appreciation of RMB,the economic cost of reducing carbon dioxide emissions is increasing.The innovation of this paper is to use the computable general equilibrium model to comprehensively analyze the impact of RMB appreciation on China's economy-energy-carbon emission system.Previous articles only consider the impact of RMB appreciation on a certain system,ignoring the internal relationship between the three systems,and most of them adopt econometric models.There are two deficiencies in this paper: firstly,the elastic coefficient in the model is selected by reference to other scholars' research,and different scholars have different opinions on its value.Whether there is a more reasonable method to obtain the elastic value is a direction of future research;secondly,the model constructed in this paper is a static model,how to dynamically study the long-term trend of RMB appreciation on China's economy-energy-carbon emission system is another direction of future research.