The Influence Of Electric Vehicle And CCS Promotion Policy On Energy Economy Based On CGE Model

With the problems of global warming,harsh environment and other issues increasing,the energy conservation and emission reduction have been gradually evolved into one of the major environmental problems facing to our humanity.As the world's largest developing country and the largest emitter,China is facing increasing pressure to reduce carbon dioxide?CO₂?emission.In order to land the economy softly and reduce carbon emissions,China has to speed up the pace of low-carbon economy,and the promotion of electric vehicles?EVs?will be an important means to reduce energy consumption and CO₂ emissions.According to the "EnergySaving and New Energy Automobile Industry Development Planning" issued by the State Council of China,to 2020,the production capacity of pure electric vehicles and plugged-up hybrid electric vehicle will be 200 million per year,cumulative sales will be more than 500 million.The international situation and the domestic policy refl ect that there is relatively realistic research significance in this study.This paper constructs a recursive China energy and environmental dynamic Computable General Equilibrium?CGE?model to analyze the economy-energyenvironment impacts of the promotion of electric vehicles and related technologies,such as of Carbon Capture and Storage?CCS?.T his paper utilized the method of adjusting the exogenous variables in CGE model innovatively to si mulate the number of electric vehicles in China,and establish five different scenarios of promotion EVs according to different policy background and the possibility of policy implementation,to provide theoretical support for the formulation of China policy.The results show: the basic level promotion policy with the CCS technology can effectively reduce carbon emissions and ease the economic losses.Although the promotion of electric vehicles will cause a certain amount of economy loss,the peak of CO₂ emissions will meet in or before 2030,which will meet China's carbon emission reduction targets in 2014 “U.S.-China Joint Announcement on Climate Change”.The impact of policy promotion in high levels on reducing carbon dioxide emissions reduction is more outstanding than that of basic level,however,the economic losses caused by high EVs promotion will be also irreparable.In the background of the promotion of electric vehicles and national carbon trading market,CCS technology plays an important role in the protection of the energy production sector: to reduce the loss of GDP,and carbon emissions,but it will no significantly effect to reduce our dependence on oil.As a supporting option of reducing carbon trading costs,CCS technology has a strong impact on carbon prices in the process of EVs promotion,and the protection and transformation of refined oil industry is a major problem worth considering.Therefore,this paper suggests that,under the premise of the national carbon trading market,the basic level EVs promotion with the thermal power plant's CCS technology is an effective policy combination for protection of the economy,and for energy saving and CO₂ reduction.