The Path Of Collaborative Governance About Atmospheric Pollution In Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region

As one of the regions with the densest distribution and the strongest comprehensive strength in China,Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is also one of the regions with the most serious air pollution in China.It is stated that NOx emissions in Beijing-Tianj in-Hebei region in 2020 should be controlled at not more than 1.2678 million tons according to the Plan for environmental protection and ecological improvement during the 13th Five-Year Plan period.Moreover,it is stated that PM2.5 concentrations should be controlled at not more than 64ug/m3 according to the Plan for ecological and environmental protection for the coordinated development of Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei.This paper used an extended Kaya model to investigate the influence of economic growth,industrial structure,energy consumption structure,energy intensity,population size and cement output on atmospheric pollution in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region based on time series data from 2006 to 2017.Nitrogen Oxides(NOx)emissions and fine particulate matter(PM2.5)concentration are selected to represent atmospheric pollution.It is found that all variables were all positively correlated with NOx emissions in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region,except for energy intensity,whose elastic coefficient was negative.Specifically,the impact of industrial structure,population,cement production and economic growth were significant at 0.05 level.Furthermore,industrial structure had the greatest potential for NOx reduction,followed by population size,cement production,energy consumption structure and economic growth.For PM2.5 concentration,only the energy consumption structure and cement output were positively correlated with it,with impacts of 3.94 and 0.03,respectively,significantly at 5%and 90%levels.It indicated that coal consumption was responsible for the high levels of PM2.5 in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region from 2006 to 2017.What's more,scenario analysis was used to make predictions about NOx emissions and PM2.5 concentration during 2020-2035 in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region.Furthermore,the path of Collaborative governance about atmospheric pollution in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region was presented to achieve the reduction target in 2020.The prediction results suggest that it is realistic to achieve the target of 2020 about NOx emissions and PM2.5 concentration in Beijing-Tianj in-Hebei Region when China's economy stepped into a status so called "New Normal".At this point,the values of the proportion of energy consumption in coal,energy intensity,the ratio of output of secondary industry,population and cemrnt production should be 59.82%,2.13,33.89%,119.0795 and 96.1802 in 2020.