Research And Control Suggestions On Influencing Factors Of Net Carbon Dioxide Emissions In Beijing-tianjin-hebei Region

With the development of global economy,more and more fossil energy such as oil and coal are used,which makes the carbon dioxide emissions increase,causes global warming,and causes serious environmental problems such as greenhouse effect.China's total economic output ranks the second in the world,but its carbon dioxide emissions rank the first in the world.Therefore,China is actively undertaking the responsibility of emission reduction and adheres to the green and low-carbon development path.Beijing Tianjin Hebei region strives to build a core metropolitan area of China's transportation integration,industrial upgrading and transfer,and ecological environment protection,which is the key monitoring object of energy conservation and emission reduction.This paper takes Beijing Tianjin Hebei region as the research object to explore how to control the net carbon dioxide emissions.First of all,this paper systematically combed the basic research theory and literature review at home and abroad,including the basic theory of low-carbon city,the theory of forest city construction,the calculation method of carbon dioxide emissions,the factors affecting carbon dioxide emissions,the research model of carbon dioxide emissions,and the research status of carbon dioxide scenario modeling.Compared with the domestic and foreign research,most of the literature mainly from two aspects There are few literatures on the research of positive impact factors of carbon dioxide.Secondly,the existing carbon dioxide absorption and emission in Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei are calculated to calculate the net carbon dioxide emission.Thirdly,the support vector machine model is used to analyze the urbanization rate,energy consumption intensity,secondary industry output value,forestry investment,net carbon dioxide absorption and forest The results show that the urbanization rate,energy consumption intensity,the output value of the second industry,and the disaster area of forest diseases and insect pests play a positive role in the net carbon dioxide emissions of Beijing Tianjin Hebei region,and the forestry investment and the net carbon dioxide absorption play a inhibitory role in the net carbon dioxide emissions.Finally,according to the experimental results in chapter four Four scenarios are set:baseline scenario,strong carbon dioxide absorption scenario,low energy consumption scenario,and low forest pest disaster area scenario.The contribution of emission reduction in four scenarios is ranked as:strong carbon dioxide absorption scenario>low forest pest and rat disaster area scenario>low energy consumption scenario>baseline scenario.According to the results of scenario simulation,three countermeasures are proposed:(1)to encourage low-carbon development and control energy consumption;(2)to improve forest management and reduce pest and rat disasters;(3)to strengthen ecological construction and build a green city.