Study On The Influencing Factors Of Guangdong Province’s CO₂ Emissions And The Prediction Of Peak Value

Firstly, LMDI decomposition method is used to analyze the influence factors of Guangdong’s CO2 emissions. Guangdong’s CO2 emissions is decomposed into five influence factors, and the result shows that the influence degree arranged from large to small according to the absolute value of these five factors is: the economic development, energy intensity, population scale, energy structure, industrial structure. In these five factors, economic development is the largest factor which promotes CO2 emissions, energy intensity is the largest factor which inhibits CO2 emissions. Secondly, based on the STIRPAT model with six scenarios, using data from 2001 to 2014 to predict Guangdong’s CO2 emissions between 2015 and 2040. Through comparative analysis, this article shows that under the optimal scenario, Guangdong reaches its emissions peak in 2025 and the level of emissions peak is 630 million tons. Finally, considering the importance of industrial CO2 emissions, this paper also uses STIRPAT model, and sets up three scenarios to predict the industrial CO2 emissions of Pearl River Delta, the East&West District and the North District. The result shows that under the optimal scenario, these three regions will get their industrial emissions peak respectively in: 2021, 2024, 2026, and the emissions peak value respectively is: 350 million tons, 80 million tons, 70 million tons.