Research On Satellite Collision Probability Estimation And Avoidance Strategy Design

In today's countries,satellite launch missions are becoming more and more intensive.Frequent aerospace activities cause a large number of invalid loads and space debris in extraterrestrial space,in addition to a limited number of payloads,occupying limited space resources,causing satellite collision accidents to occur from time to time.Therefore,in order to ensure the safe operation of satellites in extraterrestrial space,it is of great significance to conduct satellite collision risk assessment and avoidance strategy design.This paper takes the collision probability estimation and evasion strategy design of circular orbit satellites as the research objectives.The main research contents are as follows:Aiming at the space propagation problem of satellite state error.First,starting from the satellite high-precision orbit dynamic model,the satellite relative motion theory is studied,the linearization equation is derived and the equation is solved to obtain the state transition matrix of the relative motion between the satellites.Based on the state transition matrix,the propagation characteristics of satellite orbit position error and velocity error are analyzed.Aiming at the problem of satellite collision probability estimation and early warning.Based on the three-dimensional Gaussian distribution,the expression of satellite collision probability is derived and the calculation method is simplified,and the positional relationship during satellite encounter is projected onto the encounter plane to achieve dimensionality reduction.For the problem of unclear error information,the maximum collision probability is analyzed and solved.The impact of relative position,error standard deviation and joint envelope radius on the collision probability is analyzed,and the expression of the satellite maximum collision probability is derived.For the design of satellite evasion strategy.Firstly,from the threshold requirements of satellite collision probability,the satellite hazard threshold and expected threshold are analyzed.Starting from the principle of reducing energy consumption,combined with the impact analysis of the maximum collision probability,the collision avoidance strategy based on the shortest maneuver distance is determined,and the calculation formula of the shortest maneuver distance and the expression of the maneuver speed are derived.Develop satellite anti-collision avoidance software,explain the module composition and operation flow of the software,introduce the application of the collision probability estimation and evasion strategy design studied in the software,and give the application examples of satellite anti-collision avoidance software.From the perspective of practical engineering,the thesis studies the problem of satellite collision probability estimation and evasion strategy design,solves the problem of satellite collision probability calculation and early warning,gives an effective satellite evasion maneuver method,and has been specifically applied in the collision avoidance software.