Decomposition And Prediction Of Factors Affecting Carbon Emissions From Energy Consumption In The Yangtze River Delta

With the rapid development of the economy,the problem of environmental pollution and energy consumption is becoming more and more serious.Coupled with the arrival of the era of low-carbon economy,energy-saving and emission reduction has become an important issue in the world.As the first economic circle in China,the Yangtze River Delta region will bring attention to the energy and environmental issues brought about by the rapid development of the economy.How to promote the coordinated development of the economy and the environment is a difficult problem that must be solved now and in the future.Therefore,based on the analysis of the basic situation of energy consumption,carbon emissions and economic development in the Yangtze River Delta region,the following discussion is made:First,what are the factors that affect the carbon emissions of energy consumption in the Yangtze River Delta region by using the LMDI factor decomposition method of carbon emissions? What impact do they have? Then,based on the Tapio decoupling model,what is the relationship between economic growth and carbon emissions in the Yangtze River Delta during the study period? Finally,the scenario analysis method combined with the STIRPAT model is used to make a rough prediction of the carbon emissions of energy consumption in the future Yangtze River Delta region and to estimate the peak.Concluded as follow:(1)During the period of 2005-2016,the energy consumption in the Yangtze River Delta region showed a steady upward trend.The energy consumption structure was dominated by coal,supplemented by oil,and the energy consumption of natural gas increased year by year.The carbon emissions of energy consumption in the Yangtze River Delta region generally showed a gradual increase,and then a steady decline.The economic aggregate has maintained a steady growth trend,and the industrial structure of the Yangtze River Delta region has undergone a transition from "two three ones" to "three two ones."(2)Population size and economic scale promote carbon emission growth,but economic scale effect is the most important factor in regional carbon emission growth;energy intensity is the decisive factor to curb carbon emission growth;industrial structure and energy intensity have positive carbon emissions The effect also has a negative effect,in which the negative effect of the industrial structure is more significant,and the two have certain potential for carbon emission reduction.(3)The decoupling state of carbon emissions and economic growth in the Yangtze River Delta region showed a trend of gradual improvement.Most of the years were mainly weak decoupling,and some years showed strong decoupling.The demographic effect has not been decoupled;the decoupling efforts made by the energy intensity effect have contributed the most;the decoupling efforts made by the industrial structure and the energy structure effect are not obvious,and sometimes even the negative decoupling efforts and the decoupling efforts made by the industrial structure effect Slightly significant in energy structure effects.(4)The peak year and peak value of carbon emissions of energy consumption in 2017-2035 based on high carbon emissions,medium carbon emissions and low carbon emissions in the Yangtze River Delta region are respectively :Appeared in 2030,the peak will reach 25011.72 million tons;in 2027,the peak will reach 18844.85 million tons;in 2025,the peak will reach 14379.43 million tons.