| The recycling of end-of-life vehicles(ELVs)is an inevitable requirement for the sustainable development of the automobile industry,the effective allocation of vehicle resources and the harmonious development of the environment.The number of ELVs,the recovery rate and the value generated by different recycling models are the three key parts in the process of recycling of ELVs.They have far-reaching influence and significance on the development and planning of the recycling and dismantling companies(TRADC).In order to predict the change trend of ELV volume in China,this paper takes about 210,000 ELVs that were recycled and dismantled in Shanghai in 2012 to 2016 as sample,and uses the Logistics model to establish the life distribution function of the vehicle.On this basis,a statistical prediction model of vehicle ownership and ELV volume is established to predict the future trend of ELVs in China.The research results show that by 2023,the total number of ELVs in China will exceed10 million,of which the commercial vehicles will gradually stabilize,and the passenger cars will continue to grow rapidly.The recovery rate is an important indicator to measure the recovery of ELVs.By analyzing the factors influencing the recovery rate,this paper establishes the evaluation method of the recovery rate of ELVs,and studies the coupling relationship between the government’s recycling subsidy policy,the recovery rate and the vehicle life distribution function in detail.Through data statistics and weight analysis,the policy recommendations for adjusting the subsidy price according to the service life of the vehicle are proposed.Material efficiency refers to reducing the production and processing of materials while providing the same material service.Parts reuse and material reuse are the two most important modes for improving the efficiency of vehicle materials.This paper uses the depreciation algorithm of parts to establish the value evaluation method based on the distribution function,and respectively evaluates the reuse,remanufacturing and upgrade remanufacturing value of parts;And establishes the economic value and environmental benefit evaluation model of material reuse based on the difference model of energy consumption and emission between the original material and the recycled material.The results of the case study show that:a.for every 1000 small passenger vehicles recovered,the direct reuse(or remanufacturing)value of the engine is equivalent to 44 new engines(or 21 new engines);b.it is estimated that by 2023,the reuse value of iron and aluminum in small passenger vehicles(36.2%of ELV volume)in China is equivalent to the economic value generated by2.4?10~9 t standard coal.To sum up,through the study of this paper,a complete system of the two processes from the recovery of ELVs to the reuse has been formed.The prediction method of ELV volume and recovery rate is of great significance to improve the number of ELVs collected by TRADC and actual recovery rate of automobile products.The reuse value of parts and materials is the main way to measure the reuse value of ELVs,which has important reference value for predicting the recycling potential of TRADC and establishing industrial development goals. |
