The Ultimate Strain-Monte Carlo Reliability Analysis Of Tailings Reservoir In Rainstorm Conditions

In recent years,tailings reservoir accidents have occurred frequently,and mine dam failures have caused great harm,heavy casualties and serious impacts,which seriously threatened the personal safety of the residents downstream of the tailings pond.A large number of statistical results show that the number of accidents associated with rainfall in tailings reservoir accidents is extremely high.It is of great significance to study the stability of tailings reservoirs in heavy rain areas.Under the background of frequent occurrence of tailings reservoir instability under heavy rain conditions,after literature analysis,it is found that the tailings reservoir stability check has three uncertainties: inaccurate rainfall boundary,inaccurate sliding surface selection,and inaccurate parameter variation consideration.The problem is based on the "three inaccuracies" problem in the calculation of tailings reservoir stability,combined with the basic principles of hydrogeology,the basic theory of elastoplastic mechanics,the limit equilibrium idea and the reliability analysis model,the ultimate strain is established-Monte Carlo Reliability analysis method.Research indicates:1)According to the engineering characteristics of the small watershed in the tailings pond,the precise rainfall boundary in the stability check of the tailings pond in the rainstorm area can be obtained through the analysis of the hydrogeological storm in the small watershed and the isosceles trapezoidal generalization of the tailings reservoir section;2)The idea of using the ultimate strain method to solve the potential sliding surface of the tailings pond is proposed,and the numerical model of the ultimate strain is solved by the tilting and overloading safety verification.The physical simulation is carried out by comparing the three criteria,and the experimental results and numerical results are obtained.By contrast analysis,it is verified that the ultimate strain method for solving the potential slip surface of the tailings pond is available and has certain precision;3)Introducing the reliability concept,the Monte Carlo random sampling reliability analysis method is used to deal with the variability of tailings reservoir components,and the ultimate strain is constructed by the precise conditions of rainfall boundary,potential sliding surface and parameter variability—Monte Carlo Reliability analysis method.Through the analysis of the example,the ultimate strain-Monte Carlo reliability analysis method is determined to have engineering practicability.The paper has 38 pictures,7 tables,and 54 references.