Study On The Effectiveness And Employment Effect Of China's Carbon Emission Trading Policy

At present,China is in a period of high-quality economic development.The construction of ecological civilization has been listed in the national strategy,and environmental protection is urgent.However,with the gradual strengthening of environmental supervision,how to coordinate the relationship between environmental protection and full employment has become an urgent problem.This paper takes China's carbon emission trading pilot policy as the research object to evaluate the effectiveness and employment effect of carbon emission trading pilot policy.First of all,this paper expounds the theoretical basis of carbon emission trading policy and the institutional background of China's carbon emission trading,and analyzes the impact mechanism of carbon emission trading policy on enterprise labor force by using the production partial equilibrium model.Secondly,it analyzes the situation of emission reduction and employment in China,and makes a visual analysis of the provincial carbon emission and employment.At the same time,the synthetic control method is used to fit the carbon emission reduction path of China's carbon emission trading pilot areas.Then,based on the provincial level data,the double difference method is used to evaluate the emission reduction effect of carbon emission trading policy,and the employment effect of carbon emission trading policy is pre evaluated to test its effectiveness.Finally,based on the premise of effective policies,using the Micro-enterprise data of Shanghai and Shenzhen A-share in2008-2017,using triple difference method,event analysis method and a series of robustness tests to evaluate the impact,heterogeneity and dynamic effect of carbon emission trading policies on the labor demand of enterprises,and using the intermediary effect model to empirical study the impact mechanism of carbon emission trading policies on employment System.This paper finds that,(1)At the national level,the total energy consumption increases year by year,but the proportion of coal consumption decreases year by year.China's seven major carbon markets have distinct characteristics.In different pilot provinces,the emission reduction effect of carbon emission trading policy is quite different.(2)At the provincial level,the carbon emission trading policy not only effectively reduces the carbon dioxide emissions of the pilot area,but also improves the employment of the pilot provinces and cities,and realizes the win-win of green emission reduction and full employment.With the increase of the implementation period of the policy,the CO2 emissions of the pilot provinces and cities continued to reduce,and the number of employees reached a peak one year after theimplementation of the policy.(3)At the micro enterprise level,the carbon emission trading policy significantly improves the labor demand of listed enterprises in the pilot area,and the annual effect is increasing year by year.From the perspective of the type of enterprise ownership,non-state-owned enterprises are more sensitive to carbon emission trading policies than state-owned enterprises;from the perspective of the intensity of enterprise environmental governance,the higher the intensity of environmental governance,the greater the role of enterprises in labor substitution.(4)Further analysis shows that carbon emission trading policy mainly acts on labor demand through two ways: promoting enterprises to expand production scale and technological innovation to replace labor factors,and the two effects are mutually neutral.At present,the output expansion effect of carbon emission trading policy is higher than the factor substitution effect,so the total employment effect is positive.The findings of this paper have some policy implications for China to further implement market-oriented environmental regulation in the field of environmental governance.The innovations of this article are:(1)From a micro perspective,evaluate the impact of carbon emissions trading policies on the labor force of enterprises,and obtain more intuitive and accurate employment effects.(2)Treating carbon emission trading policies as a quasi-natural experiment,testing the effectiveness of carbon emission trading policies and the micro employment effect,to a certain extent,make up for the vacancy in the field of China's market environmental regulation policy employment effect research.According to the research results,this paper believes that the current priority is to accelerate the construction of the national carbon trading market,and help China's high-quality economic development.Secondly,we should make clear the direction of China's market-oriented environmental regulation reform,optimize the choice of environmental policies,improve the intensity of regulation,and avoid the phenomenon of "softening" of environmental regulation.At the same time,vigorously advocate technological innovation of enterprises and boost industrial transformation.Finally,we should implement the strategy of talent development,strengthen the training of high skilled labor force and the skill training of low and medium skilled workers,and optimize the employment structure.