Research On Forecast Of Natural Gas Demand In China Under New Normal Condition Of Economy

With China's economic development entering a new normal,slowing economic growth,tight resource and environment constraints and continuous optimization of energy consumption structure,the development of China's natural gas market also faces a more complicated internal and external environment.Against this background,it is of great significance to accurately predict the future demand for natural gas in China,to adjust the utilization policies of natural gas,and to promote the healthy development of the natural gas market.First of all,this paper analyzes the changes in the natural gas market in China and the opportunities and challenges faced by it in the context of the new normal economy;then analyzes 13 factors affecting the demand for natural gas in terms of economy,population,natural gas development,and environmental protection.The correlation analysis of 11 factors that can be quantified provides data support for the prediction model.Finally,a combined forecasting model is established to integrate the multivariate regression prediction model based on causality and the exponential smoothing based on the natural development law of natural gas consumption.Models,combined with certain weights to make predictions,cover as much as possible all useful information about natural gas demand forecasts to ensure the accuracy of the forecast results.The final prediction accuracy reached 98.36%.The forecast results are as follows: The predicted values of natural gas demand from 2018 to 2025 are: 2555.95,2762.74,2970.83,3208.16,3465.91,3706.42,3956.17,423.8.869 billion cubic meters.Through analysis of the forecast results,we can see that under the new normal economic conditions,China's natural gas consumption continues to grow,but the growth rate has slowed down,and the growth rate has remained at about 9%.