Evaluation Of Ecological Carrying Capacity Of Typical Rare Earth Mining Areas In China By A Three-dimensional Model

Ecological carrying capacity is the degree of interaction and coordination between the various influencing factors of the ecosystem.At present,most of the research methods on ecological carrying capacity are based on two-dimensional evaluation,lacking a spatial perspective.Although some methods are based on spatial quantitative evaluation of ecological carrying capacity,only population factors are considered,and the lack of impact on the entire social and economic state and Evaluation of future development trends.The thesis selected Chinese rare earth mining area as the research object,by collecting typical rare earth mining areas(Baotou Bayan Obo: fluorocarbon ceria and monazite mixed mine;Jining Weishan County: fluorocarbon cerium mine;Ganzhou Longnan County: ionic rare earth mine)2012— 2018 ecological,environmental and socio-economic indicators,analyze the interaction between the three,establish a three-dimensional model,and subdivide it into 8 blocks,35 indicators,using subjective and objective comprehensive weighting method to determine the weight of each indicator,Comparative analysis of the current status of ecological carrying capacity,using Markov prediction model and gray prediction model to predict future development trends,and through uncertainty analysis to find out the key factors affecting ecological carrying capacity.This study believes that the ecological subsystems of the three places have the greatest impact on the ecological carrying capacity.Among them,Bayan Obo mining area is in model block III in most years;Weishan County was in model block III in 2012 and belongs to model block from 2013 to 2015 ? In 2016-2017,it was in the model block ?;Longnan County was in the model block ? from 2013 to 2014,belongs to the model block ? in 2015,and was in the model block ? from 2016 to 2017.The ecological carrying capacity of Bayan Obo mining area is at a low level,and economic and environmental development needs to be coordinated.The ecological carrying capacity of Weishan County has developed from a low ecological environment and social and economic development level in the early stage to a rapid economic development at the expense of the environment at the mid-term.The state of comprehensive high-speed development in the later period;the social and economic level of Longnan County maintained a good development state,with the low ecological environment in the early stage,the economy and environment in the later stage were developed in harmony.Since 2018,the probability of appearance of superior value in Weishan County is slightly greater than the probability of occurrence of median value.Therefore,it is considered that the ecological carrying capacity of Weishan County is at the superior value,but the mid-range line is skipped,which is consistent with the true situation in 2018;the gray model predicts The comprehensive score of the ecological carrying capacity of Mountain County is 0.6622,and the error from the true value of 0.5534 is 19.66%,which is less than 20%.The error is slightly larger,but it is still within the acceptable range.The ecological carrying capacity of Bayan Obo mining area is mainly influenced by the environmental subsystem,the ecological carrying capacity of Weishan County is mainly influenced by the social subsystem,and the ecological carrying capacity of Longnan County is mainly influenced by the ecological subsystem.