Influencing Factors And Predictions Of Carbon Emissions In Liaoning Province

Global warming caused by the increased greenhouse gas emissions has become a great challenge for all people around the world.China is at a stage of rapid development.China is at a stage of rapid development,and as a big carbon emitter,the task of reducing carbon emissions faced by China is very difficult.Exploring the impact of regional human activities on carbon emissions is of great significance for the formulation of relevant policies to achieve carbon reduction targets.As a traditional industrial base of China,Liaoning Province,under the dual promotion of urbanization development and economic development,the growth of carbon emissions from energy combustion is inevitable.While ensuring economic development,Liaoning Province,how to formulate relevant policies and achieve carbon emission reduction is a problem that should be concerned and discussed.This paper selects the relevant data of Liaoning Province for 2000-2016 as a research sample,calculates the carbon consumption of energy consumption,and based on STIRPAT,the population and affluence of Liaoning Province(expressed in GDP per capita),the technological progress(expressed in terms of energy intensity),the second industrial output value,the third industry output value and urbanization level of these 6 factors affecting carbon emissions were quantitatively analyzed.The results of STIRPAT model show that the influence of various influencing factors on carbon emissions in Liaoning Province is from large to small: population,urbanization rate,affluence,secondary industrial output value,tertiary output value and technological progress.The impact of population on carbon emissions is much greater than that of other influencing factors.The secondary industry has a greater impact on carbon emissions with a focuses on the tertiary industry in economic development.On this basis,the influence factors are predicted by the grey Verhulst model,and it is found that the grey Verhulst model has good fitting effect on the prediction of each influencing factor.The prediction results of grey Verhulst model are put into the STIRPAT model to predict the carbon emissions.The results show that carbon emissions of Liaoning province will keeping rise in 2017 to 2030,but the growth rate will gradually reduce.Carbon emissions would reach 229.91 million t by 2030,and there would be no peak until 2030.The development trend of carbon emissions in the 2017-2030 is based on the forecast results of the combination of STIRPAT model and gray Verhulst model,according to different development trends,combined with relevant policy provisions,divided into 24 kinds of scenarios.In the 24 kinds of scenarios,the carbon emissions of scenarios with high population growth rates are higher than the baseline scenario,and the scenario of low population growth rates is only one scenario in which carbon emissions are higher than the baseline scenario.By comparing the carbon emissions of different scenarios,it is found that the population has the greatest impact on carbon emissions,and the secondary industry has a greater impact on carbon emissions with a focuses on the tertiary industry in economic development,and the conclusion is the same as the conclusion of the STIRPAT model.