The Carbon Emissions Factors And Trend Prediction Of Partial Provinces And Cities In Our Country

The background of this study based on global warming and the growing concern of the emissions of the greenhouse gas which urgently need to reduce. With the predecessors’research, this study have list a comparison of the emissions of the regional in china by the source of carbon emission. It’s presented a basic status by the related data about the energy and industry. By comparing China’s30provinces and autonomous regions of the carbon dioxide emissions, the growth rate of carbon emissions, per capita carbon emissions and carbon intensity,we can get the point that to control carbon dioxide emissions, focus on Hebei, Jiangsu, Shandong, Henan province can be effective. This paper selects in Hebei and Shandong province as the representative to further study.For the selected provinces,its carbon dioxide emissions, per capita real GDP, total population, energy intensity, the secondary industry accounted for the proportion of regional GDP or the proportion of tertiary industry output value accounted for area-based SPIRPAT model fitting, and found two province almost same situation in the selected factors, the population impact on carbon emissions in Hebei and Shandong provinces obvious.It show that the growth of total number of population is an important factor for the growth of carbon emissions, control of population growth is a very effective way to reduce emissions, which can effectively inhibit the excessive growth of carbon emissions. Wealth and energy intensity are also very significant cause of Hebei and Shandong Province impact of carbon dioxide emissions, so in a time of rapid economic development should pay close attention to its negative impact on carbon emissions, but also pay attention to a variety of energy efficiency, use of clean energy instead of high-polluting energy or develop new energy sources. The impact of industrial structure in Hebei carbon dioxide emissions, though not the population, the impact of energy intensity and degree of affluence so obvious, however, Shandong Province, due to the secondary industry accounted for the high proportion of GDP still rising, fitting results affect the display of the second industrial carbon emissions is very large. Therefore, the industrial structure is still the driving factor in provinces and autonomous regions of China’s carbon emissions. By adjusting the industrial structure was reasonable, but also on reducing carbon emissions make a significant contribution.According to the fitting equation, when seven different scenarios have been set, can predict the carbon dioxide emissions in2015,2020and2030under different scenarios. As the "rapid economic growth" scenario of carbon emissions is the biggest, however we can’t slow down de economic growth to reduce the emissions. through a comprehensive analysis by controlling population growth, carbon dioxide emissions can be slowed to a considerable extent the growth rate. In addition, economic growth accelerated while the force along with energy efficiency can also be improved, can continue to optimize the industrial structure.Analysis the carbon emissions of Heibei and Shandong province, energy conservation policy can be extended to the whole country, the carbon emission reduction measures proposed for the provinces and autonomous regions of the country.