A Study On The Political Risks Of Cross-border High-speed Railway Investment Projects In Overseas Multi-Host Countries

In recent years,high-speed railway has experienced rapid development in China.From the early stage of exploration,expansion development and rapid development,China has gradually become a really leading country of high-speed rail.In 2013,the proposal of" the Belt and Road" has created a historic opportunity for the "going out" of high-speed rail.Driven by Chinese leaders and the advantages of Chinese high-speed rail,China completed the first overseas high-speed rail——Turkey Anyi high-speed rail.The "going out" of high-speed rail is faced with both opportunities and risks.Compared with the technology and economic risks which can be analyzed by the use of models and empirical studies,the political risks have brought in great challenges for overseas investments because of its abruptness and difficulty to control.It is an important subject for the "going out" of high-speed rail to effectively control the political risks and establish a reasonable and effective political risk management system.Based on the perspectives of cross-border high-speed rail and multi-host countries,combined with literature synthesis and verification table method,this dissertation analyzes the connotation of political risks for overseas high-speed rail project from four angles to refine the risk indexes including the political risks of the host countries themselves,the political risks between the host countries and the home country,the political risks between the host countries and external political risks,and establishes political risk index system.Considering the difficulty of quantifying political risks and the lack of related data,this paper combines Interpretative Structural Model and Bayesian Network Model to assess the political risks of cross-border high-speed rail projects in overseas multi-host countries.First,the factor relationship table is established,and Interpretative Structural Model is used by the general steps to acquire hierarchical relationship diagram,analyze the index hierarchy and lay the foundation for the construction of directed acyclic graph.This paper introduces the case study of Central Asian high-speed rail,establishes the expert questionnaire,combines the risk matrix to cut down the risk indexes with smaller priori probabilities,and establishes the Bayesian Network directed acyclic graph.GeNIe software is used to study the parameters and obtain the risk states of all the factors and the whole project.Treating the overall risk as the target to conduct Sensitivity Analysis,the key political risk factors of the Central Asian high-speed rail project are concentrated in Kazakhstan and Germany's own political risks and their bilateral relations.Finally,response measures are conducted for key risk factors and the monitoring system for the political risk of Central Asian high-speed rail is set up.