Research On Time Series Distribution Characteristics Of Passenger Flow Of Beijing-Shanghai High Speed Railway

The construction of a modern comprehensive transportation system is an important measure to promote the structural reform of the supply side of the transportation industry.High-speed rail is an important means of transport to provide passenger with transportation services,which enhances much convenience for travelers.Beijing-Shanghai high-speed rail is a typical representative of numerous high-speed rail lines in China.The studies of the overall scale and distribution of high-speed rail passenger flow between the Beijing-Shanghai city laps and the difference in passenger capacity at different time nodes are of great significance for guiding high-speed rail passenger flow to staggered shifts,lifting efficiency of passenger transport and improving service quality.This paper used qualitative analysis methods to analyze the influencing factors of Beijing-Shanghai high-speed rail passenger flow from two aspects based on the existing research results.The social and economic factors of this research included economic development levels,residents' income and consumption levels,economic links between cities and tourism development,while summing fares,travel time,frequency of departures and service levels were classified as transportation factors.In addition,the paper also classified the temporal characteristics of passenger flow into weekly,daily,and holiday distributions for classified study.The time series characteristics of Beijing-Shanghai high speed rail passenger flow from different time sequences of periods,weeks,and holidays have been analyzed based on the data of the remaining tickets in 19 months(521 days)of the Beijing-Shanghai high speed rail from May 25,2015 to December 27,2016.First,in the study of weekly passenger flow,the necessity of studying the weekly passenger flow distribution has been proved through analyzing weekly life routine and the curve of weekly passenger flow has been drawn.The results showed that the passenger flow over the weekend was higher than the working day.The passenger flow was not very volatile on working days from Monday to Thursday.The passenger flow expanded on Friday,fell on Saturday and increased again on Sunday.The article introduced the uniform distribution function and the normal distribution function and fit the distribution curve of weekly passenger flow.Based on the K-S test,it was concluded that the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed rail weekly passenger flow curve follows a uniform distribution before Thursday,and follows a normal distribution after Thursday.Secondly,in the study of daily passenger flow,the"2-hour average passenger flow" analysis indicator was used to conclude that the daily passenger flow exhibited an "M"-type period distribution pattern.The two peaks appeared at 8-10 o'clock and 14-16 o'clock respectively.The paper then introduced the uniform distribution function and the normal distribution function and fit the distribution curve of daily passenger flow.Based on the K-S test,the results showed that daily passenger flow curve before 13 o'clock on the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed rail obeys a log-normal distribution and follows a normal distribution after 13 o'clock.After that,the daily passenger flow was classified and analyzed using the cluster analysis methods,the passenger flow of 7 days was divided into three types from Monday to Thursday,Friday and Sunday,and Saturday according to the time interval distribution pattern,and they belonged to "double peak type" "full-peak" and "no-peak" distribution patterns respectively.Thirdly,in the study of holiday passenger flow,the "M" type distribution characteristics of "ups,downs,rises,and then drops" all appear on the "3" day holiday by plotting the holiday passenger flow distribution curve.The impact on the usual passenger flow is different,ranging from 8 to 11 days.For a "7" day holiday,the period of influence of the Spring Festival and National Day is 32 days and 16 days respectively.The holiday passenger flow was tested under different probability distribution functions,and it was determined that the holiday passenger flow obeys Normal(0.27,0.71),and the rationality of the distribution was checked with the P-P chart based on the K-S test.This paper analyzed the time-series characteristics of passenger flow based on Beijing-Shanghai high-speed rail passenger ticket data.Not only did it understand and master the distribution of passenger flow on time,week and holiday time nodes.It has enriches the theory and methods of passenger flow research to a certain extent.In order to actively guide passengers to shift peaks,optimize the allocation of resources for high-speed railway transportation capacity,and continuously improve the comprehensive transportation system,suggestions has been made to optimize frequency of launches,implement floating fares,and improve the service level of high-speed rail passenger transportation according to the timing distribution law of passenger flow.