The Strategies Of Prefabricated Construction Market Entry Based On Option Game Theory

With the characteristics of environmental protection,high efficiency and energysaving,prefabricated construction has become one of the major ways for real estate enterprises to transform into green business under the background of national's vigorous promotion and environmental protection.Two modes of transformation for enterprises are mainly included: large-scale real estate corporations who could own self-built prefabricated construction production systems,and small and medium-sized real estate corporations who could form prefabricated construction production systems with the cooperation of prefabricated component manufacturers.However,the mode of prefabricated construction has a short time of application in China,which might lead to high market uncertainty,as well as enormous investment cost.Therefore,how to choose the optimum strategies of the prefabricated construction market entry for real estate enterprises is the key issue to be solved urgently.In response to the key issue,the thesis takes the uncertainty,the management flexibility in the process of investment and the competitive behavior among real estate enterprises into consideration,so as to study the issue of market entry of prefabricated building under the condition of that large-scale real estate corporations who could own self-built prefabricated construction production systems,and small and medium-sized real estate corporations who could form prefabricated construction production systems with the cooperation of traditional prefabricated component manufacturers.In particular,the research mainly consists of following aspects:The paper detailly introduces the characteristics of prefabricated construction and summarizes the differences from cast-in-situ construction among three aspects in detail: the whole life-cycle,development and policy support.The dissertation analyzes the uncertainty through the investment process of prefabricated construction market entry and proposes the necessity of the utilization of option game theory about it.On this basis,firstly,aiming at the issue of market access of prefabricated building under the circumstance of that large-scale real estate corporations who could own self-built prefabricated construction production systems,the thesis establishes an option game model of two asymmetric real estate enterprises where both enterprises face the prefabricated construction technology investment opportunities on the condition of that environmental benefits which are brought by the investment behavior are regarded as revenues of enterprises,and gets the explicit expressions of the optimal investment time and optimum investment scale under the condition of sequential investment and synchronous investment.In addition,the characteristics of equilibrium solutions are discussed.Secondly,the paper studies the issue of optimal investment strategy for prefabricated construction technology in terms of the strategic alliance which is made up of small and medium-sized real estate corporations and traditional prefabricated component manufacturers:(1)It establishes an model of strategy selection of prefabricated construction market entry for strategic alliance under non-competitive environment.It is discovered that the strategic alliance which is made up of small and medium-sized real estate corporations and traditional prefabricated component manufacturers would delay the time of market entry when compared with large-scale real estate corporations.(2)It also establishes an option game model of two prefabricated construction investment strategic alliances on the condition of asymmetric competitive advantage in market,as well as uncertain market demand and investment cost under competitive environment,which obtained the optimal investment timing of two strategic alliances.Moreover,the characters of investment equilibrium solutions are discussed.Finally,according to the results,the dissertation puts forward some relevant suggestions for the government and the real estate enterprises to promote the development of prefabricated construction in three aspects: reducing cost,guaranteeing market demands and enhancing environmental awareness.