Study On The Fluctuation And Relationship Of Real Estate Industry And Construction Industry Prosperity Index In Liaoning

Real estate industry and construction industry occupies an important position in our national economy,especially since 2008,China's real estate industry has experienced a period of rapid growth,but also led to the rapid growth of the construction industry,in recent years,due to the implementation of national macro-control policies,the growth trend of real estate and construction industry has been fluctuating,which has also brought some influence on the development of other areas of our national economy.Therefore,it is very important for the development of the construction industry and the harmonious development between the construction industry and the real estate industry to examine the volatility characteristics of the real estate industry and the construction industry.Under the above research background,this article has carried on the following research work to the real estate industry and the construction industry index fluctuation and the relation research in Liaoning Province:First,on the basis of fully reading literatures and summarizing predecessors' research,this paper introduces the theory of Boom analysis,boom Index and fluctuation into the research of real estate and construction industry,and preliminarily constructs the index system of Boom index of real estate and construction industry,and analyzes the calculation method of Boom index.It lays a good theoretical foundation for the study of the relationship between the real estate industry and the building boom index and its fluctuation.Secondly,according to the index system of the real estate industry and the construction Industry index,through the CensusX-12 season adjustment method,the two industries'prosperity indices were completed season adjustment of the time series from the first quarter of 2008 to the fourth quarter of 2016;By using the time difference correlation analysis method,the prosperity index is divided into the first,the consistent,the lag three kinds of index group;Combining the characteristics of the boom index system using the entropy method and the principal component analysis method to determine the weight of the boom index system,the synthetic index of the real estate and construction industry is calculated by and through the first quarter of 2008 to 2016 to the fourth quarter of the real estate industry and construction industry in advance,consistent,lagging behind the composite index of three types of indicators and the three types of boom index determined by the comprehensive boom index,and analysis of its various index group fluctuation characteristics.Finally,the volatility relationship of both the real estate industry and the construction industry is analyzed qualitatively and quantitatively by the consistent boom index and the comprehensive boom index.The qualitative analysis results show that the fluctuation trend of the real estate and construction industry is consistent with the consistent boom index,and because of the integration of the indices of the two time series related to the current and lagging boom indices,there is an inconsistency in the comprehensive boom index.The result of quantitative analysis shows that the real estate industry has a 0.964 pulling range for the construction industry,and for the comprehensive boom index,its pulling range is 1.199.