High Speed Rail Freight Train Cargo Class Selection And Freight Volume Forecast Research

With the victory of the 19th century,our country is steadily entering a new era and a new journey.At the same time,in July 2016,China railway corporation sketched the"eight vertical and eight horizontal" in the new period of high-speed railway network,the high-speed railway construction of our country grows vigorously,continuously improve infrastructure,which bring new opportunities for a new era of railway transportation.With the increasing demand for the timeliness,rapidness and volume of high value added goods,the demand for transporting goods by high-speed rail freight train is becoming more and more obvious.Under the above background,in order to provide high-speed rail operators to carry out high-speed rail freight trains business to provide data reference,better development and supplement high-speed rail freight in China,based on the high-speed rail freight trains suitable freight class analysis,traffic volume forecast as the breakthrough point to study high-speed rail freight trains,concrete from the following aspects are studied and discussed.(1)Analysis of cargo class of high-speed rail freight train.Summarizes the domestic and foreign current situation of the development of high-speed rail freight trains,summary analysis of the feasibility and necessity of transport goods class and its potential market is analyzed,and on this basis,establish high-speed rail freight trains selecting freight class evaluation model(including the evaluation method,evaluation index),choose the suitable for high-speed rail freight trains transport goods,and these goods as the main object for trains freight volume forecast.(2)Forecast of freight volume of high-speed rail freight train.Firstly,the main,components of various influencing factors were determined by the principal component analysis method.With a review of the current freight volume forecasting model and theory,based on the influence factors of the main components,selecting rational prediction model,to build high-speed rail freight trains suitable freight cargo combination forecast model.Co-opetition relationships based on aviation,high-speed rail,highways,high-speed rail freight share rate model is set up,so as to build high-speed rail freight trains freight volume forecasting model,based on the supply of goods to attract relation between cities,OD traffic volume forecast model is set up.Finally,the bank of Beijing high-speed rail freight class as an example,forecasts the Beijing high-speed rail freight trains of the amount of freight,and combining with the OD forecasting model to predict the first-tier cities such as Beijing,Shanghai,Guangzhou split OD cargo.