Human Risk Evaluation Of Arrival And Departure Of Trains Under The Abnormal Conditions

In recent years,China’s railway industry has been developing rapidly with its advantages of comfortable speed,high punctuality rate and high security.As an important link to ensure the safety and improve transportation efficiency of the arrival and departure of trains,due to the good working condition of the staff and the hardware equipment,the reliability of the arrival and departure of trains are very high under the normal conditions.However,when the system is in equipment failure,technical equipment construction,natural disaster,or when the train is running in a variety of unexpected conditions and other abnormal conditions,because the staff can’t work according to the normal transportation method and plan to complete the established transport tasks,the staff are affected by the work experience,training exercises and emergency response and other factors,so the probability of human errors will increase significantly.Therefore,how to scientifically and reasonably conduct the research on the risk analysis of arrival and departure of trains under the abnormal conditions has become the focus of the railway departments.In this dissertation,the staff of arrival and departure of trains under the abnormal conditions is the research object,which is guided by the theory of cognitive science,safety engineering and human reliability and risk assessment.The application of the Hazard and Operability Study(HAZOP)method,and the extension evaluation method to build a system of method of the human error identification and human risk evaluation under the abnormal conditions.(1)The abnormal conditions of arrival and departure of trains are defined,and its operation characteristics are analyzed.The cognitive behavior model of arrival and departure of trains under the abnormal conditions was established based on the theory of the four stages model of cognitive behavior and the Skill-Rule-Knowledge Model(SRK).Based on this cognitive model,the HAZOP method was adopted to identify the human risk of arrival and departure of trains under the abnormal conditions.(2)The Performance Shaping Factor(PSF)system of arrival and departure of trains under the abnormal conditions was constructed.Considering the characteristics of the human factor index data itself,the weight analysis of PSF was carried out by G1 method,and the probability of human error was quantified,and the probability of human reliability of each PSF in the best,general and worst states were obtained.(3)The risk evaluation of arrival and departure of trains under the abnormal conditions was conducted based on extension theory.At the same time,to avoid the problem of the maximum membership failure in the extension evaluation,an improved multi-level extension evaluation model based on asymmetrical closeness was proposed.And compared with the traditional extension evaluation method based on correlation function,the applicability of extension study in human risk assessment was verified.Finally,according to the result of risk assessment,the corresponding risk control measures were formulated.