Research On Risk Assessment Model Of New Energy Power System Under Energy Internet

With the depletion of fossil energy and the exacerbated environmental problems,the era of Energy Internet characterized by the fusion of energy and information technology is approaching.Wind energy,solar energy and other new energy will gradually replace coal,oil,natural gas and other traditional energy,but new energy power generation has a significant randomness and volatility,which makes the future power system perform strong randomness in the supply side and demand side.Under this trend,the risk of supply side will be greatly increased,which makes the research on the risk of new energy power system meaningful.In order to evaluate the risk of new energy power system effectively,it is necessary to establish a reasonable risk assessment index system.The existing risk assessment index system of power system is not suitable for the risk assessment of new energy power system because of the less consideration of bilateral randomness.To solve this problem,this paper firstly establishes a risk assessment index system considering bilateral randomness from three aspects of planning,scheduling and operation.Subsequently,for planning risk,a risk assessment model based on optimal variable weight is proposed.The model combines the static subjective weight based on similarity clustering analysis and FAHP with the dynamic objective weight based on improved CRITIC method as the optimal variable weight,which makes up for the defects of the traditional subjective weighting method failing to consider expert authority and turns the static risk assessment into dynamic risk assessment considering the timing characteristics.For scheduling risk,a matter-element extensible model based on maximum deviation and fuzzy integral is proposed.The model improves the classical domain,the matter element to be evaluated and the grading evaluation criteria,reduces the subjective factors in risk assessment when determining the weight of evaluation index and reflects the active participation of the evaluation object in the comprehensive evaluation.For operation risk,this paper presents a risk assessment model based on fuzzy neural network,which overcomes the shortcomings of over-reliance on expert experience in traditional risk assessment methods and makes the prior knowledge embedded in the network very well.