Research On Provincial Energy Carrying Capacity In China

Energy,as a source of power and material security for the development of a country's national economy,plays a decisive role in economic development.The sustainability of energy has become heated a topic,debating among scholars in recent years.Energy carrying capacity is a major measure of the sustainable development of energy systems.Nowadays,it has become a major issue for scientific research.Therefore,it is urgently necessary to analyze the state of energy carrying and to determine the sustainable development trend of regional energy.It is great significance to seek solutions about the contradiction between regional energy supply and demand,and to promote the sustainable development of regional economy.According to previous literatures,on the basis of the theory of sustainable development and energy carrying capacity,theoretical and empirical analysis methods and a combination of time and space methods were used,focusing on the research methods for energy carrying capacity.Based on this,the per capita energy ecological surplus/deficit in 30 provinces and cities was calculated,then forecasted using the grey forecast method for the next three years.This paper is divided into five parts: Firstly,it summarizes the background and significance of the research on energy carrying capacity,clarifies the importance of energy carrying capacity,and explains the current state of energy resources in China;Secondly,it elaborates energy from the perspective of sustainable development theory.The theoretical basis of carrying capacity,combined with the connotation and characteristics of energy carrying capacity,then discusses the research methods of energy carrying capacity;Again,based on the perspective of energy supply and demand,the paper use energy statistical yearbook related data to describe the current status of China's energy supply and demand development level.It discusses the deficiencies in the development process.Then,from the perspective of energy supply and demand,the energy ecological footprint method is used to measure the per capita energy ecological surplus/deficit of various provinces and cities in China over the years.On the whole,China's per capita energy ecological surplus is relatively low,and the energy carrying situation is not optimistic.The energy carrying capacity of the relatively economically developed and energy-poor areas has,to a certain extent,reduced the energy carrying capacity of the corresponding regions.In terms of sub-regions,most of the central regions are surplus or fully loaded,while the northwest and southwest regions have been surplus during the observation period.In addition,the spatial correlation analysis of per capita energy ecosurplus/deficit between regions reveals that there is a significant spatial positive correlation,and this spatial dependence is growing stronger over time;finally,based on the per capita energy ecological surplus in various regions of China over the years The actual estimation of the deficit shows that China's energy carrying status is not optimistic and the regional differences are quite large.Based on this,a number of suggestions have been made.