The Research Of Water Resources Carrying Capacity In Aksu Based On The Ecological Footprint Analysis

With the increasingly serious problems of water resources,it is more and more high in the world, how to solve the waste of water resources, that pollution and other issues has become the current problems that world’s most intractable. Therefore, the study of a regional water resource is able to meet the production and life of the people, whether it can meet the needs of the ecological environment is very necessary, how to reasonably use and development of water resources can do harm to the ecological environment, you can also meet the needs of economic development, is the core idea of sustainable development. In this paper taking the ecological footprint theory as a guide, from statistical yearbook of Aksu Prefecture, access data, to calculate and analyze the Aksu area 2004-2013 water resources ecological carrying capacity and social economic carrying capacity, and through the gray prediction model to predict the ecological deficit 2014-2024 years. Come to the following conclusions:(1) in Aksu area, the water resources ecological footprint per capita as a whole is fluctuating state, in 2007 it reached the peak, then decreased gradually, in 2013 it reached minimum value that one person 0.44hm2. Among them, the per capita water resources of the first industry is far greater than that of the per capita living water and ecological environment water. Above trend is because of large industrial park planning water use, tank farms and the transformation of water saving measures the resources can be used effectively and with gradually reduced the amount of water. The reason for the increase in domestic water consumption is that the urban population is growing and the living standards are constantly improving. Eco environmental water is due to the ecological environment protection criterion and the standard with the continuous improvement of the social development, the enhancement of environmental protection consciousness of people and for ecological restoration of governance and attention gradually increased the ecological and environmental water.(2) These factors affect the water resources carrying capacity in a certain degree.During the study period, Aksu area can be water supply has a larger space and great water-saving potential in the process of sustainable development reduces the part of the demand for water. 2010 the amount of per capita water resources for the 3063m3,exceeded the average level of Xinjiang. It shows that the water resources in the region are not very much pressure on the increasing population and the amount of water resources is enough.(4) The economic development factor of the population and the society is the main driving factor of the change of the social and economic carrying capacity of the water resources in Akesu region. The constant expansion of population and social economic development of water resources carrying capacity bring tremendous pressure, but in Aksu area, water resources are relatively rich, in addition to improve the previous of inefficient and extensive water use patterns, through in-depth development of water conservation work, vigorously promote advanced water-saving irrigation technology, the construction of necessary water saving project to improve the utilization rate of water resources, Aksu area water resources and social economic carrying capacity will also have development space.The total GDP of the Akesu area did not exceed the carrying capacity of the water resources GDP. The difference between GDP total and water resource GDP carrying has expanded each year, on the one hand because in water resources utilization rate of increase, on the other hand is ecological deficit of water resources gradually reduced, that in the process of economic development, the water resources of economic output is in continuous growth.(5) Aksu region from 2004 to 2004 of the ecological deficit of water resources as a whole has a tendency to decrease, by the 2006-2008 deficit situation slightly increased, then decreased year by year. Owing to the rapid economic development, aksu area industrial development is not perfect, low resource utilization, agricultural water gradually shifted from extensive use to intensive use, the people environmental protection consciousness weak, cause the deficit of water resources. By 2013, the water is still in deficit, but the deficit is shrinking year by year, aksu region water resource utilization is more reasonable.According to the data from 2008 to 2013, ecological deficit of water resources, through the grey prediction GM(1, 1) model forecast from 2014 to 2024, water ecological deficit(surplus). The ecological deficit of the Akesu region has decreased from 0.41hm2 one person in 2012 to 0.17 hm2 one person in 2024. On the basis of economic sustainable development, with the progress of science and technology, water resource utilization is greatly improved.Tends to reasonable development and utilization of water resources and water-saving awareness enhancement makes the ecological deficit of water resources was decreasing gradually, but still in the red. Therefore, the future water saving situation is still grim.