Research On Investment Optimization System For Power Grid Enterprises Under Electric Reform Environment

The new round of power system reform has prompted grid companies to pay more attention to such indicators as effective assets and allowable costs related to the reform of the power system,which put forward new requirements on investment capability and investment allocation.The power grid companies need to have a more accurate grasp of their own investment capabilities,optimize the allocation of investment structure,focus on investment efficiency,to ensure the effectiveness of investment and improve the economic construction of power grids.Aiming at the influence of power system reform on the investment of power grid enterprises,this paper constructs a set of investment structure optimization system to adapt to the new electricity reform environment from the aspects of investment demand forecasting,investment ability forecasting,investment structure optimization and investment structure evaluation.And this will improve the level of investment to meet the requirements of the development of the environment.First of all,the forecast model of investment demand of power grid enterprises under the new electric power reform environment is constructed by using the combination forecast and the combination weighting method.Taking into account the factors that affect the investment of power grid enterprises under the new electric power reform environment,the investment demand of power grid as the dependent variable,the growth of power consumption,the maximum load growth,the demand for renovation of aging equipment,the growth of regional GDP as explanatory variables,Regression model has been constructed.And the model goodness of fit is tested to ensure the model's predictive effect.In addition,digging historical investment data according to the trend extrapolation,selected gray forecasting and cubic exponential smoothing model to predict the future investment demand of power grid.Secondly,basing on the reform of transmission and distribution price,a new model for calculating the investment ability of power grid enterprises is constructed.From the two aspects of its own funds and bank loans,this paper analyzes its investment capacity,based on the transmission and distribution price reform of the return on investment requirements,the three factors that affect the return on investment as a constraint,that is,asset-liability ratio constraints,return on equity And the debt capital rate of return constraints,seek the maximum investment value.Thirdly,an optimization model for investment structure of power grid companies is constructed.The basic idea is to optimize the economy and reliability of the power grid as the objective function,and the constraints include investment demand constraints,investment ability constraints,reliability constraints,and other resource constraints.And the genetic algorithm is used to solve this investment structure optimization model.Finally,aiming at the actual operation status of a power grid enterprise and basing on historical data,this paper predicts its investment demand and investment ability from 2018 to 2022.Based on the prediction results in previous studies,the main distribution network with different voltage levels Investment allocation is performed.In addition,using the constructed core index system of investment structure evaluation,this paper conducts a longitudinal comparative analysis of the investment structure of the grid enterprises from 2014 to 2017.