| According to “the provincial power grid transmission and distribution price pricing method” promulgated by the National Development and Reform Commission,provincial power grid transmission and distribution permitted revenue consists of permitted costs,permitted benefits,and in-price taxes,while permitted costs and permitted benefits are closely related to grid investment.In addition,the new round of power reform system stipulates that relevant government supervision and management departments and grid companies themselves must strictly verify their costs and planned investment goals corresponding to their corporate development in each round of supervision cycles.In other words,power grid companies must scientifically estimate the scale of investment,rationally arrange investment structures,and carefully evaluate grid investment risks,so as to improve the efficiency of power grid companies’ investment efficiency,achieve the scale of investment and financial capabilities,and the direction of investment should be aligned with the grid structure and increase in investment.Match with investment benefits.Therefore,it is necessary to study investment strategies that adapt to the development of the power grid and meet the requirements of transmission and distribution prices,and promote the healthy and sustainable development of the power grid.This paper first sorts out the influence between the transmission and distribution price and the investment capacity of the grid based on the requirements of the transmission and distribution price supervision policy,and establishes the investment capacity prediction model that meets the requirements of the transmission and distribution price reform with the constraints of the transmission and distribution price,asset-liability ratio and total profit.Secondly,an investment demand indicator system based on voltage levels was constructed,the relationship between demand indicators and project attributes was established,and the gray correlation degree was used to calculate the weight between indicators and project attributes,and a grid hierarchical investment demand forecast model considering project attributes was established.Then the power grid investment benefit calculation model based on the life cycle theory is established,and the Monte Carlo investment risk assessment model based on LHS sampling is established for the main uncertain factors that affect the investment benefit,and the probability of the investment reaching the benchmark rate of return is calculated.Finally,taking the A provincial power grid company as an example,the maximum investment capacity of the second regulatory cycle of the provincial power grid company in 2020-2022 is estimated,and the investment needs of each project attribute of each voltage level in 2020-2022 are made based on the historical input-output data.It is predicted that according to the results of investment demand and investment capacity,the investment scale of province A’s power grid from 2020 to 2022 is determined,and relevant recommendations are made to calculate the benefits and risk assessment of the predicted power grid investment in 2021.The results show that the investment risk is controllable,this investment is feasible. |
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