Research On The Development Path And Strategy Of China's New Energy Vehicle Industry

As the most important energy consumption state,China has already faced the serious challenge for sustainable development.In fact,the problem of environmental pollution,especially the atmospheric pollution,bring serious throad to social stability and development.Under this background,it is in urgent need to develop new-energy vehicle to deal with both of energy security and environmental pollution.Therefore,great attention has been attracted into the new-energy vehicle industry and great effort has been made by govements from each level.Thus,great progress has been achieved in this new-energy vehicle field in China,where marketization and commercialization have reached outstanding level.However,the new energy vehicle industry of China are still facing a serial problems in terms of policy,core technology and infrastructure,due to the weakness of our country compaired with tradditional automobile powers.This paper focuses on the path and marcket situation of new energy vehicle industry of China.Firstly,deep discuss is conducted on path and marcket situation of tradditional automobile powers,followed by analysis of four stages for new energy vehicle industry of China and dipiction of current market and technology conditions.Combinning the SWOT method,deep ananlysis is made on advantage,disadvantage,oppurtunaty and challenge for new energy vehicle industry of China.And it can be drawn that these oppurtunaties exist in resources and market,while the disadvangage is still there in cost and infrastructure aspects.Aimed to deal with problems mentioned above,qualitative and quantitative analysises are both made for market potantion of new energy vehicles,where the bass model based data analysis and prediction are both conducted.To achieve better accuracy,nonlinear least square method is adopted to estimat related parameters of bass model,combinning the Delphi method to correct these parameters.Thus,the prediction curve of new energy vehicle market scale can be gained from 2017 to 2050,together with the market inflection point.On the base of industry status quo,existing problems and prediction trend of new energy vehicle industry of China,several proposals are presented at last,including govment policy,related infrasctructure,enterprise strategy and makert stratagy,where the policy support and financial incentives should be emphasized to enhance the technologies investment and to avoide the industry hollowing.Through these reasonable proposals,data support can be given for the developmet of new energy vehicle industry of China and important refrence can be provided for the sustainable development of this industry.