Research On Construction Risk Of Underground Subway Station Based On Probability Risk Theory

Essentially,risk is the offset between the outcome of behavior and expectation,which includes quality and quantity,and when the offset of these two aspects is in the tolerance interval,we do not need to control it,while when the offset is up to or over some scale,which may have damage on the production and life safety of us,so that it may be transformed into risk,and we have have some precaution and control it.In modern society,with the changes of means of transportation,the construction speed on the related projects of transportation industry,by means of the impetus brought by modern engineering technology,the metro construction in the city has been acquired rapid development,while during the course of construction,there are some risk accidents,which do not cause large economic loss and social influence,but also have direct connection with the total construction quality of metro construction in the city,and also influence the realization on the safety,and economic and social interests of metro construction in the future service,so that they have profound significance on it.Thus,in sake of the safety during the course of metro construction,and also for the long-term stable operation of it after the coming into service,we must have some researches on the possible risks of metro construction and control them in our best.In this paper,it first introduces the related theories on the research of risk and the research status of risks in metro construction,and summarizes some theories and methods in risk management;then,by means of risk probability theory,it can discern the initiating events and establish assessment indicator system,and have fault tree modeling;so that it can confirm the possible risks during the course of metro construction,including risks in mechanical equipment,personnel,materials,construction methods,and environmental factors;finally,by means of the statistics and analysis on the collected data,it can draw the conclusion that among all these risk factors,the risk on mechanical equipment is the major risk factor in mechanical equipment,the following are personnel,materials,environmental factors,and construction methods in sequence,so that it should mainly have precaution and control on the risks of mechanical equipment in metro construction.As to the analysis on the cases,by means of the qualitative and quantitativeevaluations on the risks of metro construction in X station in subway 1 in Kunming,it can calculate the probability of occurrence of every event and also the basic events with larger influence on the top events.The final conclusion of this paper is that there are 16 larger risks in the metro construction in X station in subway 1 in Kunming,which are belonged to 4 types,the part with largest probability of occurrence for risk is the part of excavation of foundation pin,while during the course,the largest risk factor is the damages of excavation of foundation pin on the surrounding constructions and underground utilities.Thus,before and during the excavation of foundation pin,it should do a good job for the protection of surrounding constructions and underground utilities,which is the important measure to prevent the occurrence of accidents.